Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cravey who wrote (201169)	6/8/2006 5:23:09 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Cravey it is going to be interesting (and bloody) quarter -AK

To: Cravey who wrote (201169)	6/8/2006 5:32:11 PM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

@Cravey - Q3 moves " It is going to be an interesting Q3 for everyone involved. " Seems right, I'm not sure, that Andy Bryant is crazy, I will bet strongly against this - so its my feeling, that he will do ALL to hold overall ASPs relativly stable. Otherwise what could Intel gain? Costs go up, volume (market in general) is a dif- ficult prediction and market-share gains from AMD are pos- sible with blue colored glasses, but what could 1Mio. in a quarter do for Intels overall numbers? Means, for the press, they could only say, that they want to gain back market-share, but behind the doors its a question whether a percentage point here is worth true $ decreases (ASP), which will last for a long time. In the end, its the same at Intel as for AMD - means MIX. Their notebook share is huge already, so I would not count on any further "sharp" increase, their business MSS is near 90% or more (probably), they cut Celerons deeply and now (we all know this) take the axe on 5xx, 6xx and 9xx prices just to have a small amount of NGA in Q3. Q4 looks NGA-wise better, but Netburst is still a HUGE HUGE part. So they either think that Celeron volume decreases and 9xx sales go through the roof, where prices are falling but still high compared to the overall ASP. Its really difficult to see be- hind the closed doors ... and the same could be said to AMD. Price cuts now look extreme, but we EVER have to look at the MIX going forward. What does it mean, when a 4000+ sells for 250$ or more, but volume is 1% of all desktops. When we could sell it for 150$ and reach 5% or more share it looks first worse, but in the end, it could end up net positive. Its a possible scenario for both, AMD and Intel and I'm really NOT!! counting on "desperation" on both sides, where we end up a stage lower (prices) in all segments, which would do nothing good for both. As already said, AMDs inventory is extremly low, they could shift their MIX very fast, they have Chartered and FAB36 on the way, which points to a strong DC ramp when you ask me for AMD too, just to let the FABs run at 100% - how deep or fast it is I really don't know, but its clear, that AMD wants 100% utilization (as Intel) and they will do what they have to do ... BUGGI