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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (73343)	6/10/2006 8:35:45 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Well, we had our buy 2 weeks ago, which should have lasted into the end of July. The early breakdown of it indicates some weakness in the market. We could see a few false moves. Next week is options expiration, which often means TA bets are off. Normally, this would be a very good time to buy calls, since there are a lot of puts sitting on the market, and there is better than 80% chance that there will be a sharp advance next week. But since our thing is saying the low will occur after expiration, just like it did in May, got to be careful. Under abnormal market conditions big expirations such as June can be BK-ish. This market since May has been anything BUT normal. Nevertheless, I may consider buying a few calls due to the risk profile of this setup. It gives a pretty good probability for call holders, because if we DO move up, it will be a sharp move.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (73343)	6/10/2006 9:24:28 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I ran some numbers. We have some room to move up within the current move down. If it lasts, then the rough target is 1222.80. The time frame is Friday, June, 30, or earlier. The move down will be cancelled if we close above 1286.36 this Monday, or 1279.61 this coming expiry Friday. We'll have a low risk buy signal if these levels are exceeded on a closing basis. We'll get stop-reverse long on a break of 1260 or so. The yellow crash flag will occur if we cross 1222.80 much earlier than by the end of June, such as next week. The lower support levels are 1149.38 for Monday, 1159.60 for Friday. These levels should produce a meaningful bounce, and a buy signal! They will also put out a red flag for the BK, if they are reached next week, which is much earlier than the end of June. In the event they don't produce a huge bounce, well, the next level is post-crash bounce, starting at 490-500 SP cash (gulp!). That level is highly improbable, so I post it just to laugh at it -g-