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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (63256)	6/10/2006 4:11:55 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

'The most common mistake on this thread is to assume that the real estate bubble is the big kahuna' Funny that I didn't see the world come to an end since the housing bust is now underway. If anything the roads, restaurants, hotels and airports seem to be humming. Keys are long term interest rates and strength of our financial institutions as to what the effect of the housing downturn will ultimately be. If Bernake tightens too much the real economy suffers short term, if he doesn't go far enough long term rates could go to double digits which would cause the son of of 1973-74 down the road. Perhaps 5% fed funds wasn't enough but 7% would be way too much?