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To: Gib Bogle who wrote (13061)6/10/2006 2:43:49 AM
From: E. Charters  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78419
 
I don't know what is so complex about the goat cadillac thingie.

I tried to figure out decision trees and I am sure they are very general and powerful. But as I see it it is a grade 6 problem. I would call it a matrix distribution.

You have this.


doors -- 1 2 3

a C G G
b G C G
c G G C


If you choose 1 in any three possibilities a, b, or c and they show you a Goat under 2a, 3a, 3b, or 2b; you switch to get a caddie 2 out of 3 times. Go down the column two and three and it's the same thing. 2 out of 3 chances, you switch and get a caddie. So it's obviously 66.66% chance to switch.

EC<:-}