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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (63276)	6/10/2006 11:23:18 AM
From: zebra4o1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Wow! That contract-volume graph is just amazing: Nice regular yearly cycles peaking in June, and then this year everything comes to a screeching halt. O.K., the housing bust is finally here, but how do I make money off it? So far home builders have been a great play. But what comes next? You would think mortgage lenders would have been the next domino to fall, but they aren't budging. Maybe they were already pricing in a crash? Home Depot and Lowes are good plays on the a crash of the 'remodelling bubble'. And their are lots of other housing related businesses to look at. But which ones are the best? Maybe S&P puts are the simplest way to go, since the US economy runs on MEW - or maybe the world economy runs on MEW?

To: russwinter who wrote (63276)	6/10/2006 11:40:31 AM
From: CaBum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Both charts in the story look wrong to me. In the NAHB chart, why were the highest peaks around 1999, not 2004 or 2005? Around 1999, the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates were all at highs. Someone is trying to paint a picture of double peaks. In the single family home sales chart, there is just no way that the annual rate of change dipped down to zero or negative around Jan 2004, either by price or sales volume. The rates were all at record lows back then! I guess someone is trying to fool people with fake charts.

To: russwinter who wrote (63276)	6/10/2006 12:23:18 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 110194

Surprise rate hike in India: morganstanley.com BC

To: russwinter who wrote (63276)	6/10/2006 6:33:53 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

WSJ: Treasuries Not Inherently 'Riskless'? socialize.morningstar.com Today's WSJ (pg C6) has an article about S&P speculating that the US Government credit rating could be downgraded from AAA in 2012 reaching A in 2015 and BBB in 2020 if current government budget trends continue. What struck me, though, was the notion that Treasuries are not inherently / automatically / metaphysically "riskless", though that's often how they're treated -- i.e. the U.S. Government will honor its debts as long as there's life on Planet Earth. Rather, "riskless"-ness is an assessment / fact subject to continual reassessment. In 2020 something other than US Treasuries could be the "riskless" benchmark for investing. Thoughts?