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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (54310)	6/10/2006 2:08:27 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 312749

<How do others see things in the next little while (3-6 months)? Is it just about picking the right stocks (as so far been this year), or is it finally going to be about the sector?> I think stockpickers can do well in a bear market, such as by being in ARU and area plays or OSK or MXAM.OB (not discussed on this thread but up 71% Fri). Overall, though, I think the low is coming in the next 2 weeks for miners, followed by the low in gold and silver by early July. I am still holding GDX, GG, NG Puts and the naked calls I wrote for $260 ea contract on HUI 370 went no-bid late in the week. I think the Fed pause or indication of pause at end June will trigger a 1-2 month market rally, followed by another slump in Sept as the housing-triggered slowdown winds its way into the market. I think the S&P will go sideways to Fed decision end of June. I think USD tried to hit Nov high (92 on USD index), so I am positioned in a USD Bull fund to capture this short-term move. I think the Treasury rally will similarly wane, and while playing TLT (and the Canadian equivalent XBB.TO) has been a good play, I'm not sure it lasts more than a month. CRB could fall lower, one way I have been playing this is to short XMA.TO. I could be wrong though. Message 22461360 Buying out of the money June Puts on the miners when I wrote that yielded returns of 100-700%.

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (54310)	6/10/2006 3:06:11 PM
From: que seria	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 312749

Dave: re: How do others see things in the next little while (3-6 months)? Is it just about picking the right stocks (as so far been this year), or is it finally going to be about the sector? For me it's always about the stocks first, and the sector second, because that way I position myself to outperform in both bull and bear phases of a secular bull such as I think we're in now. ARU.V has much more than offset paper losses in the rest of my PM portfolio. That's true even though I'm only 25% cash, which for me is low (it's that desire to have cash in a collapse). So I guess I'm a sector timer too, and more optimistic than not. I think it is likely we have further to go down before Fall, yet I've only pared rather than cut my overall PM holdings because such timing is a guess. Unlike my guesses about individual junior explorers, which are made safer by buying a basket of such stocks, I can't offset a sector buy/sell decision (i.e., my cash position) with diversification (since I'm largely out of all non-PM stocks, with slight energy and tech holdings). Reminisces of a Stock Operator: "Never lose your position." Or just: Be right, sit tight. But for Aurelian, I would have a far higher cash position. I haven't even sold the ARU shares in my IRA; I will not be out on the takeover. I'll buy more if it comes back enough. I see sector gains as typified by moves in the large and mid-cap producers. I'm not in this sector for that level of gain and I don't get disturbed to see that level of paper loss. I think anyone paying attention to world economic events can easily justify entering the PM sector right now as a solid long-term (and likely IT) bet against the financial probity of the U.S. government, and the U.S. dollar. As long as you're doing that, why not cherry-pick stocks that you won't feel compelled to sell in a downturn and won't be anxious to offload in a rise--at least in a taxable account? Probably what most everyone here does. Just depends upon whether the hunt and the kill (research, success) are fun or boring. We all know what category we fall into! I am not, however, adding to any except special situations here, as I wait to see how low the doldrums take the PMs.

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (54310)	6/11/2006 1:19:37 AM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 312749

"Gold will eventually do well, but who knows the path it takes." Who cares as long as we know we are on it?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (54310)	6/11/2006 1:38:39 AM
From: Proud Deplorable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312749

Harry Versus The Volcano Author: Jim Sinclair The multilateral and simultaneous increase of short term interest rates among central banks was no coincidence. It was a message stating all major central banks will close ranks against the inevitable impact of the Professor Bernanke Electric Mayhem Helicopter Drop of Liquidity into the international monetary system. Never before Professor Bernanke acted has there been so much liquidity injected into a multilateral system over such a short period of time with no means of drainage. The message has been delivered, but what was the urgency, and who is the opposition this message was directed at? The answer is contained in an article that has nothing to do with this subject, yet it is there. The week, June 9th, www.money.com, a Scripps publication ran an article titled “Emerging –Market Hedge Funds Take Hit.” This missive has in it the following quote; “The news service sites Brad Duncan, managing director at the Boston based Emerging Portfolio Fund Research Funds. His company tracks 15,000 Hedge funds with more than $7,000,000,000,000, yes seven trillion dollars.” That number buries all central banks put together yet the article is not clear if that is all hedge funds or just emerging market hedge funds. I will look at this as all hedge funds to be conservative (if seven trillion can be considered conservative). It is down right SHOCKING in the hand of mad ladies and men. We know every one of these hedge funds has some sort of computer based trading tool, mostly in the form of black boxes. Some may however use normal TA. Regardless of what system they use, the final analysis is all based on moving averages that are massaged almost to death. This means this mountain of money, mostly a product of an international monetary system awash in liquidity, will descend on the market of choice. If you add all central banks together there isn’t enough gold to depress the price assuming that conditions result in a fierce run away move with technical conviction behind it. We know from history the degree that interest rates must rise to blunt the same type of gold move (1968–1980) would have to be so high that it would bury business so deep the world economy would come to a halt. The BLUFF of the Bank of England, Fed, and Euroland will have less impact each time it is pulled until it has none at all. They should have never raised interest rates, together giving away their plans. The Fed should have left the Bank of England alone in their effort to save the LME from being trashed because of the copper carry trade. The central banks are now totally out of the closet. Their plan is crystal clear but the central banks simply lack the ammunition to oppose the hedge funds in the market place. Slowly traders will catch on until such efforts are sterilized. Fundamentals will propel the gold price as the plan of the central banks has no legs with out policy change abhorrent to the present Administration. The Fed is as independent as new born child. As this is recognized, each bluff will fall shorter than intended and then the black boxes will be totally in charge. Gold is going to $1650.