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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (7120)	6/10/2006 7:02:37 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217796

I am helping some folks to look at China NPLs, and I must say, it is big and interesting, all through the system. The stuff is definitely getting worked down, but the stuff is probably also growing from new loans. The political imperative, as everywhere else in the world, must be to bail the banks out, even if only at the very last minute or a few hours beyond. Using the reserve has already been and will most likely be again. Between China's uses for reserve (infrastructure buildout, resource purchase, corporate m&a, bank recapitalization, gold import and dissemination) and its need to generate new reserves for more of the same, I hope the hosts, the givers of reserves survive the process, since the pent-up demand for purchase was built up over 300 years, and the need for purchases is backed by 20% of the world's population. So, for genuinely excess savings and real surplus capital, and rainy day money, gold remains the obvious (4000+ years), safe (2 year horizon), inexpensive (<40% of peak price) answer. The <<depth and breadth of the global slowdown>> must be deep and wide, esle we will be in bigger trouble down the road. In the mean time, we must also play other games, so that we can generate more excess / surplus to buy gold with :0) Whatelse can we do? Surely not simply watch and let ourselves be taken? On USD, I do not have a lot; I am so far happy with stance in CAD, but must obviously keep close watch/brief for I cannot afford to be dogmatic. I am wavering about the rest of my currency positions (CHF, Euro, and of course, the still no-good Yen). I may switch them back to HKD, but only if I need to use them for any unique opportunity that requires HKD. Chugs, J