Hello Ray, I agree that it took Rome 500 years to collapse, and the sequence was quite pleasant for some caught within the embrace of collapse, and likewise Britain, but in less than 500 years, and so forth.
I had always believed that the collapse is a process and not an event, like so, from 2003 Message 18552276 <<As I had mentioned long ago, the Collapse is a process continuum, and not an event singularity, as had been pre-viewed in Japan and spot-sighted in Argentina>>
And so, from 2004 Message 19769137 <<As to the issue concerning Collapse, I think we may have reached a majority agreement on the thread that the collapse is a process, not an event, and as such, we do not know until we know, but must guard against the possibilities by trying to be scientific, as in observe, analyze, exchange views, debate, and act in accordance with gaming best practice. >>
And yes, I appreciate the power of debt, especially cheap debt, particularly debt without recourse, and absent personal guaranty. The neat thing is that good ideas propagate with increasing rapidity, and as always, the build up of debt powers the world towards the next crisis, which I also appreciate, sometimes even more. Now, with the whole world now debt-ly, I am fascinated, feel fortunate to be able to witness and perhaps partake in what ought to take place.
My perspective is one simply derived from a location where we tend to be swarmed by crisis once every so many months (say 30-60 months, max), and I sense one coming up right now.
This overarching and all-encompassing global episode (1983-2006) will come to a climax at some juncture, and given the size of the bubbles, the store potential energy, and the nature of the socio-political setups, it will perhaps be astute to be absent from the scene when the end happens. The center of the episode is in NY, but the footprint of the episode covers everywhere else. However, escape may not be possible, and resistance (short) may be costly.
Preparation of stance, and movement to implement escape must be methodical and progressive, like professional dancing and professional everything else, I figure. The exits are traditional, I guess, because generically there are only so many possibilities.
As to the elapsed time of collapse for the US economy, I actually never had taken a view (other than the fact that I am only 8.odd% physical PM), for it is not necessary, most of the time hardly perceptible, in any case not an actual investment focus, and at most, just a mist of context, if that. If I believed collapse is imminent, I would be at 100% physical PM.
However, for policy making, and therefore for policy mistakes making, I figure the decision makers' choices are getting progressively stark, making mistakes of judgement more material, and urgency for decisions, wrong or wrong again, more ... well, urgent. And because of the size of mistakes past, the outcome for mistakes future more substantial.
Chugs, J |
