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To: Gib Bogle who wrote (13124)	6/10/2006 10:26:04 PM
From: Gib Bogle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78417

Of course it doesn't change the result if the probs on O2 and O3 are not equal - the point is that the total prob on the G1 branch is 1/3, and that's the prob of losing if you swap.

To: Gib Bogle who wrote (13124)	6/11/2006 1:25:40 AM
From: E. Charters	Respond to of 78417

This is what happens to the tree if the Caddie is under door 3 and you switch. "OD1" is for "(opens door one", G1 is "guess door one". OGT1 is " (MC)opens goat-door one". o------------------------------ \|GD1 \|GD2 \|GD3----\| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| OGTD2 OGTD2 OGTD1 OGTD1 \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| OD3 OD3 OD2 OD1 Win Win lose lose If the Caddie were under any one then the tree would expand. "C" means Cadillac behind that door. o----------------------------------\| You guess \|GD1--C \|GD2---C \|GD3----C \| \| \| \| \| \| chance on \| \| \| \| \| \| switch 66 0 66 0 66 0 \| \| \| \| \| \| MC opens OGTD2 OGTD3 OGTD1 OGTD3 OGTD1 OGTD2 \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| \| You open OD3 OD2 OD3 OD1 OD2 OD1