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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ridingycurve who wrote (65814)	6/13/2006 1:06:43 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206212

ridinycurve. I like to actually have a probability number calculated when I use the word probable or probability in statements. So I can't offer any "high probability set ups" because I can't calculate the probability. We all have different risk profiles or tolerance levels and that's hard to define. As a substitute, my question of somebody when they contemplate a stock purchase, is, "How long are you going to be in for?" If you tell me you follow dabum, then I presume the answer might be one or three days, maybe a few weeks. I have nothing to offer for anything in this timeframe. Longer term, one reasonable suggestion is COP. I'm willing to take short term losses on it to get long term gains. Here you have the great investor W. Buffett buying some (as well as buys by a bunch of other good investors, e.g. D. Dreman, C. Davis), and the price is now possibly less or equal to what Mr. Buffett established his position at. I assume there are just so many reasons not to buy now - prevailing fud - that none the fundamentals or this buying by smart investors matters. I'm guessing if somebody didn't buy PTR when it was $21/sh to $18/sh when Buffett established his postion in this one in '03, or if they did buy then but don't hold it now (It's dropped to ~$95/sh.), there's just no reinforcement to make a purchase of COP at current price. For me, I've no problem adding to a full position. OTOH, there is risk. I try to manage it by diversifying among this sub sector (XOM, CHV, etc.), as well as with a variety of juniors, transporters, suppliers, etc. Also, I have positions elsewhere - financials, food, foreign,etc. etc. Somebody's in the stock market, occasionally they'll suffer as the whole market tanks. I'll try to live with the volatility. In past, the market has overcome these scary times.