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Strategies & Market Trends : Can you beat 50% per month? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (10183)	6/13/2006 8:34:05 AM
From: Smiling Bob	Respond to of 19256

DJ DATA SNAP: US May Retail Sales Above Expectations .========================================================= U.S. Retail Sales May Apr Consensus: ! Overall 0.1% 0.8%r Unch ! Ex-Autos 0.5% 0.8%r Actual: ! +0.1% ! ========================================================= By Jeff Bater Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Retail sales slowed to a crawl during May, suggesting the economy is weakening as demand tumbled for cars and such home improvement goods as furniture and building materials. Sales inched up by a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. April sales were much stronger than first thought, however, rising by 0.8% as opposed to the previously estimated 0.5% gain. The median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had retail sales remaining flat in May. Consumer spending is a pivotal part of the equation used to figure out how the economy is faring. Spending makes up about two-thirds of gross domestic product. A strong consumer gave the biggest push to the economy early this year, when gross domestic product grew by 5.3% during January through March. Economists expect lower GDP growth for the second quarter, which ends June 30. Sales in May of auto and parts retailers decreased by 1.6%, after rising by 0.8% in April. Outside the auto sector, all other retail sales climbed by 0.5%. Economists expected a 0.5% increase. Sales excluding autos rose 0.8% in April. Gas station sales increased by 1.9% last month after rising 5.5% in April. Stripping away sales at gas stations, demand at all other retailers fell last month, down 0.1%. Excluding both autos and gasoline, all other retail sales went 0.3% higher in May. Demand excluding gas and autos rose by 0.1% in April. Sales last month advanced 0.3% at general merchandise stores; 0.4% at health and personal care stores; 0.7% at sporting goods, hobby and book stores; 1.8% at mail order and Internet retailers; 0.4% at electronics and appliance stores; 0.2% at clothing stores; and 0.6% at food and beverage stores. Demand in May fell by 0.5% at furniture stores and 0.4% at building material and garden stores. Sales were flat at restaurants and bars. -By Jeff Bater, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-6616; jeff.bater@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires June 13, 2006 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT) Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 08 30 AM EDT 06-13-06 Brought to you by Scottrader, a product of Scottrade Inc

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (10183)	7/13/2006 3:52:09 PM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19256

At what point does the consumer throw in the towel? When is a concerted effort made to eliminate dependence on oil ? Stay tuned. It's going to get interesting. At least the traffic jams will start to free up. Got puts? Oil Prices Settle Near $77 a Barrel Thursday July 13, 3:36 pm ET By Brad Foss, AP Business Writer Oil Prices Settle at Record Near $77 a Barrel As Violence in Middle East Escalates WASHINGTON (AP) -- Oil prices settled at a record above $76 a barrel Thursday in a market agitated by escalating violence in the Middle East and the threat of supply disruptions there and beyond. The latest surge in oil shook stock-market investors' confidence, though economists said most U.S. consumers and businesses appear to be absorbing higher energy costs surprisingly well. U.S. gasoline demand continues to rise in spite of near $3-a-gallon pump prices, core inflation remains relatively low and the U.S. economy is forecast to grow by roughly 3 percent in the second half of the year. "Two years ago I might have said that $70 or $75 a barrel would be some kind of a tipping point. Now I'm not so sure anymore," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a private forecasting firm. Still, Behravesh said lower-income Americans are suffering disproportionately from higher energy costs and "I could certainly make a policy case for helping them out on a temporary basis." Light sweet crude for August delivery shot up as high as $76.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before settling at $76.70. The rally came as fighting between Israel and Lebanon intensified, explosions hit Nigerian oil installations and a diplomatic standoff dragged on between the West and Iran over its nuclear program. The previous Nymex settlement record of $75.19 was set July 5. The previous intraday record of $75.78 was posted two days later. Adjusted for inflation, oil prices would need to rise to about $90 a barrel to exceed the highs set a quarter century ago when supplies tightened in the aftermath of a revolution in Iran and a war between Iraq and Iran. Today oil prices are being pushed higher by rising global demand and worries that the world's limited supply cushion would not be adequate to offset a lengthy disruption to output in major producing countries, such as Iran or Nigeria. There are also concerns about the risks hurricanes pose to U.S. production. The latest fear being priced into the market is that the conflict between Israel and Lebanon could spill over into other corners of the Middle East, the region that produces nearly a third the world's oil and contains almost two-thirds of its untapped reserves. Israel intensified its attacks against Lebanon on Thursday, imposing a naval blockade, twice hitting Beirut's airport and blasting two Lebanese army air bases near Syria. Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets into Israel, which said one also struck the port city of Haifa. More than 51 people have died in two days of violence following the capture of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah militants, who have financial links to Syria and Iran. Iran has threatened on more than one occasion to use oil as a weapon if the United Nations uses economic sanctions or some other punishment in its dispute with Tehran over its nuclear program. While OPEC's No. 2 supplier has not raised the issue of withholding oil from the market in a sign of solidarity with Hezbollah, the possibility is no doubt influencing oil traders' actions. "It plays psychologically in people's minds," said Larry Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a New York-based industry-financed think tank. "You don't have to hear them say it." In Nigeria, government officials said twin explosions hit oil installations belonging to an Italian oil company in the volatile southeastern delta region. Elsewhere, militants attacked a group of 11 boats carrying supplies to Chevron's offshore oil fields Wednesday, killing four navy sailors who were escorting the convoy, Brig. Gen. Alfred Ilogho said Thursday. "The oil price has become a register of geopolitical tensions and fears," said Daniel Yergin, who heads Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Yergin said petroleum supply-demand fundamentals are improving, with global oil inventories and spare oil-production capacity rising, but clearly not enough to offset the geopolitical unrest. The surge in oil prices rattled stock market investors, sending the Dow Jones industrials sharply lower for the second straight day. Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, slumped 2 percent on the New York Stock Exchange on concerns that high energy prices are cutting into consumers' discretionary income. "The economy took $50 oil in stride," Yergin said. "It's clearly not taking $70 or $75 a barrel in stride. This is a rougher adjustment." With U.S. oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. earning record amounts, some members of Congress have proposed taxing "windfall" profits in order to finance energy assistance programs for the poor, but the idea does not have wide support. The energy-policy debate in Washington right now centers around efforts to repeal the ban on offshore drilling and to fix a law that allows oil and natural-gas companies to avoid billions of dollars of royalty payments on offshore drilling leases. Critics say Congress has failed in its approach to deal with soaring energy costs because it has not given as much attention to curbing demand as it has to adding supplies, such as a hotly debated proposal to open an Alaskan wildlife refuge to oil drilling. "We too often forget that the United States is far and away the biggest consumer of oil," said Tyson Slocum, an energy expert at Public Citzen, a Washington-based consumer watchdog. Slocum said the country needs to invest more in public transportation and to sharply increase automobile fuel-economy standards. Associated Press Writers Sam Ghattas in Beirut and William Nsoyoh in Yenagoa, Nigeria, contributed to this report.

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (10183)	1/18/2007 3:43:59 PM
From: Smiling Bob	Respond to of 19256

2 weeks off, but has got to count for something down from $77 in July Message 22537505 --- Oil Briefly Falls Below $50 Per Barrel Thursday January 18, 3:01 pm ET By Stan Choe, AP Business Writer Oil Prices Briefly Fall Below $50 Per Barrel Amid Larger-Than-Expected Crude Inventories NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices briefly fell below $50 per barrel Thursday for the first time since May 25, 2005, after the government reported larger-than-expected jumps in crude oil and gasoline inventories. Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell to $49.90 in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It spent only a few moments below the $50 threshold before climbing back to $50.40, down $1.84 from Wednesday's close. "There's no doubt that this is significant," said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. "If you're a bull, the only thing you can hold your hat on is they didn't close below $50." If that happens, Flynn said the next important psychological barrier could be $45 per-barrel oil prices. U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 6.8 million barrels to 321.5 million, according to a report by the Energy Information Administration. Analysts had been expecting an increase of just 325,000 barrels, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. The EIA said inventories are above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Gasoline inventories, meanwhile, rose by 3.5 million barrels to 216.8 million, above analysts' expectations of a 2.6 million barrel rise. Distillate fuel inventories, which include heating oil, rose by 900,000 barrels to 141.9 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations of a 1.3 million barrel rise. March Brent crude on London's ICE futures exchange fell $1.07 to $51.71. Heating oil lost 3 cents to $1.4695 a gallon while natural gas futures rose 10 cents to $6.334 per 1,000 cubic feet. Gasoline prices fell 2.69 cents to $1.3517 a gallon. Earlier in the day, prices were buffeted by the effect of a cold snap in the U.S. Northeast and forecasts of bearish demand growth from the International Energy Agency. In lowering expectations for this year as well revising last year's figures downward, the Paris-based IEA cited mild winter weather that has crimped energy demand and weaker expectations for U.S. economic growth. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the energy watchdog forecast global oil demand growth this year of 85.77 million barrels a day, down 160,000 barrels a day. And it said oil demand growth last year was 120,000 barrels a day lower. Oil powerhouse Saudi Arabia remans undeterred by crude's recent drop. Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi, who earlier this week said he opposed calls from other OPEC members for new cuts in production, announced Thursday his country planned to increase its crude oil production capacity nearly 40 percent by 2009 and double its refining size over the next five years to keep pace with growing global demand. Naimi blamed the sharp rise in global crude prices over the past two years mostly on "insufficient investment and rising energy demand," especially from the booming economies of Asia. "The rise has been a wake-up call for the industry and for producers and consumers alike, who are now beginning to address deliverability problem head on," he said at an international energy conference in New Delhi. But Yemen's oil minister, Khalid Mahfoudh Bahah, who was also attending the conference in New Delhi, said he expects oil price to average between $55 a barrel and $60 a barrel in the coming months. Vienna's PVM Oil Associates said Naimi's opposition to further cuts for now may be a call to other OPEC members "for better compliance with the already agreed output reductions, the second of which has yet to come into effect." OPEC has committed to a total cut in output of 1.7 million barrels per day, including a 500,000 barrel-a-day reduction set to begin Feb. 1. A survey by Dow Jones estimates OPEC has cut output by little more than half of its pledged levels. Production remains near 27 million barrels a day or about 700,000 barrels a day above OPEC's target. Associated Press writers Gillian Wong in Singapore and George Jahn in Vienna, Austria, contributed to this report.