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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Palau who wrote (742492)	6/13/2006 1:32:22 PM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 769670

Oil: Conclusions So demand is softening, inventories are above average, and supplies are increasing. On the surface, it doesn't look too good for the oil boom. However, going back to 1981, we find striking differences. In 1981, the global rig count was almost 6,500, more than double current levels. The American economy was in a terrible recession. Vehicle fuel economy was rapidly increasing, and new producing regions in Alaska and the North Sea had increasing production. These events are much different from today. Demand and the global economy are growing. The EIA has a more aggressive forecast than the IEA, predicting demand growth of 1.6 million bpd in 2006 and 2 million bpd in 2007. Economies are growing in the U.S., Europe, and Japan concurrently for the first time in decades. The IMF recently upped its global GDP growth estimate to 4.9% in 2006, followed by 4.7% in 2007. A healthy global economy will keep oil demand rising and make the "bust" scenario unlikely. The recent slackening of demand is likely temporary. In Europe, drivers have been paying more than $4 a gallon for a long time, with current prices near $7 a gallon. Yet demand in Europe is much higher today than it was 10 years ago. People get used to high prices -- whereas $2 a gallon was unthinkable in 1999, it now looks like a bargain. Basically, Americans have repeatedly voted with their dollars to say they don't want public transportation, they want to drive big cars, and they want to live in large houses far away from urban centers. These are luxuries that most people are unwilling to give up, even to save a thousand dollars a year on gas. Therefore, barring global recession, the oil boom will continue -- albeit with some violent bumps along the way. The oil-services sector is almost certain to remain very active, as big oil companies make their drilling plans based on $25-per-barrel oil -- a price that would occur only with a global financial collapse. fool.com

To: Mr. Palau who wrote (742492)	6/13/2006 2:59:41 PM
From: Srexley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Thomas Sowell is flat out one of the smartest human beings on the planet imo. Still don't know the details of FL laws, and in some cases when their is a catastrophy there may be reason to limit the free market. But Sowell makes an excellent case overall. If you do not already, I reccommend reading his columns regularly. He has done an excellent piece similar to this on the housing "shortage" in places like the Bay Area that freeze out the average joe by limiting the supply of houses by creating grand open space for the rich folks to enjoy. We could find lots to agree about if you find yourself frequently agreeing with him. If you ever get the chance to see the interview he did on Fox with Fred Barnes I would highly reccommend it.