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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (56009)6/13/2006 6:04:54 PM
From: mishedloRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 306849
 
Demographics are next to useless.
What are you doing, reading Harry Dent theories?
Prices simply can not (sustainably) rise above people's means to pay for houses.

That is a simple economic fact.
Demographics can slow the pace of decline or increase the the silliness of the blowoff top, but those buying Florida Condos at the top will probably never break even IMO, regardless of demographics.

Now the question is: where are wages headed - I say in the toilet until outsourcing is done
Where are jobs headed? Once again this will be horrid. A slowdown in RE activity will crucify all job growth (and with it add further pressure on wages)

Since you started having civil conversations as opposed to taunting Patron out of the blue I will do the same.

Mish



To: Beachside Bill who wrote (56009)6/13/2006 6:06:57 PM
From: Broken_ClockRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
I agree that a rising population increase is inherently better for appreciation than a declining pop....however, all real estate appreciation must be accompanied by job growth in order to be supported and sustained long term. A bubble in real estate supported by bubble jobs in the real estate sector and all of it supported by ever expanding bubble debt is in the end(where have I heard that before -g-) a nightmare unfolding.


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