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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (201987)	6/13/2006 8:55:49 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

re: Hence the 40% drop in stock price I am sure AMD would love to run their own tests to begin with. Do you think that Intel might be kind enough to provide AMD with few conroes -AK

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (201987)	6/14/2006 6:37:36 AM
From: zdenekb_1999	Respond to of 275872

Sarmad, >> product is overhyped, >>>> What evidence is there for that ? None of course as there ain't no product. Benchmarks so far designed for a beauty contest, and systems built by Intel - leaves room for at least some doubt. I have seen what seems to be a different one linked by the Inq a few days. For some reason there was SATA HD/2GB RAM vs. ATA/1GB. Probably we'll need to wait until launch to get significantly more details. Cache surely helps a lot, and Conroe seems to be an excellent processor which in all likelyhood will outperform AMD's best at launch time. For now, I am refusing to believe that Conroe will outperform A64 by 20% or more consistently(edit: as the "official" benchmarks make believe). Clock for clock, I expect a somewhat mixed bag with less than dramatic differences between products, except where cache comes into play (difficult to guess at the exact impact of large cache). >> and Intel is likely to underdeliver >>>>ditto. Well, they'll need flawless product and a smooth ramp without any issues. This taken for granted, I still doubt whether Conroe/Merom/Woodcrest are as good as Intel displays them (for example slides from Intel Technology Update available at their site: I remember slide 14 looking a bit funny as Woodcrest is compared to 2.6/2.4/2.6 Opterons to make the charts look good. Numbers also look less than impressive when clock speed is normalized). I would be surprised if they could live up to the media hype. >> - unless they have done a lot of sampling for a long time. >>>> It looks like they have. Agreed, the 30% number by year-end is likely. Question is how much further can they go as the majority of unit shares seems to be in the low end which is P4/Celeron territory. A celeronized Conroe version might be a huge threat, though (unless too expensive or performing badly with less cache to keep production cost low). >> I'd wager a guess that the main reason for all the hype was to hamper further AMD socket wins. >>>>And what did AMD respond with ? Nothing. Hence the 40% drop in stock price. Do you really think the lack of a preannouncent of greener pastures correlates strongly with stock price? With everyone crying wolf aka price war? >> The unknown factor might be: given that P4 really sucks, how unwilling were OEMs to continue building stoves instead of computers, >>>>Willing enough to give it 80% market share for years. I'd doubt they were that willing. Think AMD capacity, old AMD reputation as low-cost low quality, marketing dollars and alleged strong-arming. >> Just a thought... >>>>Does this thought lead to any forecast regarding AMD stock price ? Why should it? "Moderated By: Mani1 -- (Moderated) -- Started: 7/19/2001 9:52:52 PM Revision History This is a thread for thoughts and news concerning AMD and overall semiconductor industry." Well, even if it led to a forecast there would be no reason for anybody out there to assume even remote correctness. When it comes to research, everybody is on his own, and not all is about hard facts (sometimes one might think facts don't matter at all ;-) Regards Zdenek