Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (63673)	6/14/2006 2:03:08 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 13:12 trotsky (Dave D) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved there are some mines in South Africa that work at depths of up to 4.5 kilometers ( e.g. Western Deep Levels ) - none of them have grades much in excess of 7-8 gm/t if i recall correctly. GFI is now even considering accessing the estimated 20m. oz. that lie BELOW the current mine infrastructure of the Kloof mine, and they didn't seem all that bothered about the engineering challenge this poses. Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 12:57 trotsky (mugwump) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "i think the gold stocks are leading pog here" maybe, but it seems far more likely that they're simply bouncing to relieve oversold conditions along with the rest of the market ( i doubt they'd be up if the Dow were down again today iow. ) . that's also why Hambone is right not to trust this bounce too much - it's more of an echo than anything else. admittedly that may change. also, it's possible that the entire XAU structure from the Feb. high was an a-b-c wave 2. as mentioned yesterday, there is at least one indication supporting this idea - the level of the Rydex pm fund CF ratio recently falling below the level it inhabited at the beginning of wave 1 as assumed by this count. Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 12:48 trotsky (Earl Grey) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "If you know anything about building in Miami - Dade" i don't. "you know that it is impossible to build anything there these days that is not to code. They constantly have inspectors all over every project." your trust in the bureaucracy is touching. i don't believe having inspectors all over the show is a guarantee of anything in particular. however, no need to speculate on this - i'm sure mish will continue following the case, so we'll see what comes of it. Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 12:44 trotsky (Hambone, 11:49) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved my view is that gold is bound to decline in sympathy with other commodities UNTIL the yield curve begins to steepen - iow., i expect it at that stage to decouple without delay and rise strongly vs. base metals and other industrial commodities. true, there may intially be a phase where it simply declines LESS than they do, but the lead times tend to be quite pronounced, i.e. it can easily start rising up to 18 months BEFORE e.g. copper finds a bottom. note that during this leading period nominal gains in gold may not be all that spectacular, but its gains expressed as ratios to other commodities should be. this would do a lot more for the bottom lines of gold mining firms than the recent spurt to over 700 did, since that was accompanied by even stronger rises in base metals prices, i.e. gold's REAL value expressed as a ratio to those metals actually declined during this rally ( one of several reasons why gold stocks seemed a tad lame during that rally ) . Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 12:33 trotsky (i take it no-one noticed) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yesterday before the market open, Bob Pisani from CNBC was on with his usual trading floor commentary and said something that i found a bit strange. 'look at gold!' ( almost breathless ) ...'it's getting HAMMERED here' ( pause ) ...'so things are definitely going in the right direction'. right direction? for whom? Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 11:41 trotsky (Hambone@yield curve) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved not at all - i expect the steepening to be a by-product of Fed rate cuts, not falling bond prices. iow, i'm looking for the FF rate to decline even faster than bond yields once the current rate hike cycle turns. this is what happened in 2000-2003 as well if you recall - most of the time bonds were fairly strong, but the Fed's panic cuts easily outran them yield-wise. Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 11:25 trotsky (Hambone) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i see what you mean - this may actually have happened last week on Thursady, when the XAU was down over 9 points intraday and then recovered to minus 3 and a few. i admit it didn't look 'perfect', but lows ( and highs ) are not always made in the exact same manner. in any event, you are probably right in not trusting a bounce too much here - lows made in panicky sell-offs have a habit of getting retested at a later stage. i'm about to take a look at some charts from the 70's - i'll report back if i find anything comparable pattern-wise.