Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (40245)	6/14/2006 3:31:21 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60910

Actually Swampy made one very observant comment here recently, and it was about the general markets. I was surprised given many of his other comments. Too much conviction at times. In case any of you have not noticed the SPX to date is in a clear ABC down move, off of its recent high. It could morph into a 5 waver, because this is not quite over. However at this point I do not expect that to happen. Assuming it does not, the general markets are not done. They will seek new highs, into the fall time frame. OTOH if the 5 waver yet comes about, they are done. In any case follow this. It is a key element. But if it is new highs ... I do not think energy or pm's will make new highs. They will however make one hell of rebound. Bulls who have held, if they desire, could make use of this. Else they might at the end no longer be bulls. I think the worst is over for this kaos, with a downward bias to some downside chop left. My current guess here is that Bernanke does nothing this go. If he does not, and that general market ABC holds form, they may explode upward. Additionally if Bernanke does not raise, the dollar rally is temporary, and then it will probably seek a double bottom into the fall timeframe. But Bernanke will then quite likely raise and the dollar will explode upward. There is very open EW scenario for all of this to happen, in the dollar. POG and PM's maybe just be leading that scenario. ttrader.com The patterns on the HUI and some leaders like GLG are also interesting. They too show an ABC formation off the top. Assuming this holds that likewise leaves open the possibility for higher highs, although I doubt they happen. I think the ABC in the HUI case is likely a '3' .. the start of 335 type correction. For GLG however it would not be. GLG would could put in a double top or quite a rebound. The HUI however imo will be held back, because of too many CDE type stocks. CDE appears to me that is still in a major correction, and has been all along (since the big bottom), and there are many other issues it. It is but another reason I have been so bearish. I came to this realization late last year. If you understand any of this .... what I am really saying is that The Prechter possibility is still very valid. Nothing has happened to rule it out. I also studied gold late last fall, and realized all of this was likely to happen. The market is going to keep everyone guessing as best it can. For the Prechter possibility to be ruled out gold has to power on up to a new high. That is the bottom line, and as of yet it has not. It stopped right about where it should have to leave Prechter open. And if Mr. P's scenario works out, this correction will go on for quite a while, like maybe 3 plus years. The only alternative EW wise that I see other than the Prechter scenario is a sharp, quick and brutal correction. Gold will turn around in the low 400 area later this year and just power on up - in a continuation of a B or X wave. It won't care what the dollar thinks or does, or the dollar will collapse in a continuation of a 5th wave down. This imo will only be likely as a result of some financial meltdown. Not on the radar screen yet. Remain open and avoid tunnel vision here ... it could be good for your financial health. There is no reason to risk all at this point on The Bull side. ttrader.com I am disappointed I missed shorting the second leg down. It went faster than I anticipated. I am now now looking to go long, but will only do so if the downtrend line breaks. I currently like the 254 area but am not ruling out the 214. There is an EW corollary that an extended wave like we have just had will do an approximate 70 % correction in less than 1/3 the amount of time it took for the whole wave to occur, originally. The demonstration has been rather cryptic and 78 % is at 216. We have one wavelet down to go here imo ... will it be long or short? ttrader.com TF ttrader.com