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Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (40249)	6/14/2006 4:04:46 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 60911

Yes ... I wish I would have stayed short and pooted more. But alas, I take what it gave and wait for the next op. I remain bearish in the longer term timeframes. The risk/reward on the upside just is not there. I follow the DJUSEN mainly now. It is a very general energy index imo. It too is so far in an ABC pattern off the top. This will allow for a nice rebound, and a even new high, or a double top. So follow that and see if it stays in an ABC or morphs into a 5 waver. That will speak volumes. If it is the 5 waver it is done. If not, then we have more really good opportunities coming up, to take advantage of, one way or the other. I do not see the new high ... but .... Assuming it stays ABC I am not interesting in the long side .. just interested in waiting for the next top to short. I heavily lean to the premise that globally we are headed into several years of a deflationary cycle ... the ending move of that cycle. How many years - I dunno but maybe around 6 or so. I have done my own work and seen enuff of others that I trust to see that on the table. Energy and commodities are not going to continue straight up in that type of an environment. Just is not going to happen. So what was this move all about under that scenario? A precursor of things to come. Nothing more, nothing less. The market is always showing us its longer term intentions, in little ways. Many of you get way too greedy. Re energy, has not it went far enuff to suit you for a spell? EW is no more bullshit than straight TA. Go look at longterm charts. A big peak is going to occur at some point in any issue, index .... whatever. Following that peak the retrace of that whole move will likely be in the 70 % range. It just happens, over and over again. On another matter, I am forming the opinion that the US is not really the source of all the global financial kaos anyway. Look to some of our Asian friends. The Nikkei chart looks a lot like a depression era crash chart. The first bottom is well in, the first rebound still in progress, but the last leg down is yet to come. It will be a killer. They are the ones that have pumped the system to no end, to try and avoid what yet must come. They will not be able to do so (imo). Maybe gold will go to the moon in dollars because the dollar really is worth something. Ever think of that??? Re the NIK .... more opportunity???