To: Peter Dierks who wrote (742821 ) 6/16/2006 9:25:33 AM From: Hope Praytochange Respond to of 769670 in the aging suburbs outside Chicago, Democrats have gradually made enough gains that they think they can now win the seat being vacated by Representative Henry J. Hyde, a 16-term Republican. The district includes much of DuPage County, still reliably Republican but becoming more Democratic as it grows. For every Democratic opportunity in older, more dense and more diverse suburbs, there is a Republican opening in the fast-growing exurbs. For example, in Douglas County, Colo., the nation's fastest-growing county in the late 1990's, Mr. Bush defeated Mr. Kerry by two to one. In the epicenter of California growth, Riverside County, the president won by 57 percent to 41 percent, a big gain over his showing in 2000. In fact, Mr. Bush won 97 of the nation's 100 fastest-growing counties in 2004. Republicans had homed in on these outer suburbs — often places that were little more than farmland or meadows just a generation ago — with campaigns built around family values. But Dr. Lang and other experts note that the exurbs in the fastest-growing counties provide a very small share of the nation's vote, and say bigger gains can be had by either party in focusing on places of transition, where older and newer suburbs meet. In looking at the 50 biggest metropolitan areas, which have about 150 million people, Dr. Lang found that 90 million lived in a somewhat older suburb and that only 5.6 million lived in the exurbs, where Mr. Bush's vote was strongest. Republicans won the last two presidential elections, Dr. Lang said, by running up huge majorities in rural and exurban areas, then winning a bare majority of the suburbs closer to the urban core.