SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (52546)6/19/2006 9:54:01 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 116555
 
Mish, Roach's argument is totally flawed. Look to total exports/imports and then look at GDP composition:

BRAZIL EXPORTS MAIN PARTNERS:
US 20.8%, Argentina 7.5%, Netherlands 6.1%, China 5.6%, Germany 4.1%, Mexico 4% (2004)

Mainly: transport equipment, iron ore, soybeans, footwear, coffee, autos

BRAZIL IMPORTS MAIN PARTNERS:
US 18.3%, Argentina 8.9%, Germany 8.1%, China 5.9%, Nigeria 5.6%, Japan 4.6% (2004)

Mainly: machinery, electrical and transport equipment, chemical products, oil

Brazil GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 10%
industry: 39.4%
services: 50.6% (2005 est.)

Compare with China:
GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 14.4%
industry: 53.1%
services: 32.5%
note: industry includes construction (2005 est.)

I don't think this points to a dependency on the US consumer for economic stability. In fact we fight really hard to become dependent on the US consumer but to no avail: tariffs in Ethanol 0.54c per gallon, USD700 per ton of frozen orange juice...

Compare with Japan. This points to a country dependent, both, on China and the US.

Exports - partners:
US 22.7%, China 13.1%, South Korea 7.8%, Taiwan 7.4%, Hong Kong 6.3% (2004)

Imports - partners:
China 20.7%, US 14%, South Korea 4.9%, Australia 4.3%, Indonesia 4.1%, Saudi Arabia 4.1%, UAE 4% (2004)

Roach should worry about Japan!!



To: mishedlo who wrote (52546)6/19/2006 10:10:14 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 116555
 
Not only that. The trade's geography is changing too. And increasing in other markets. It's easier to get new markets than to fight to get mor emarket share of the US market.

The chief regions to which Brazil's exports increased in 2004 were the Mercosur (57.1%) - to Argentina alone the growth amounted to 61.7%); the ALADI (Latin American Integration Association, made up of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela), with a 48.8% growth rate when it comes to the non-Mercosur members; Africa (48.4%); the Middle East (31.4%); the European Union (30.9%); Asia (24.7%); Eastern Europe (22.7%); and the United States (20.4%).

Market Diversification Boosts Brazilian Exports
Written by Bruno Boccini
Thursday, 06 January 2005
Exports shipped to countries such as Trinidad and Tobago, Poland, and Algeria, with which Brazil had no trading tradition, earned over US$ 4 billion in 2004.

According to the secretary of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Development, Ivan Ramalho, the addition of these new markets to Brazil's list of foreign trade partners constituted a significant change in the country's export profile.

"We experienced a powerful process of market diversification. The biggest export increases in 2004 occurred in sales to non-traditional markets, such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe, the Caribbean, and some African countries," he affirmed.

According to Ramalho, the United States, which has historically been the largest buyer of Brazilian products, accounted for "only 20% of what the country exported." "The other 80% now goes to scores of other countries," he explained.

Another significant change in Brazil's export profile, Ramalho highlighted, was the addition of 600 new products to the country's export list, which is made up of 7,100 items.

40 years ago, 93% of what Brazil exported consisted of non-industrial raw materials, such as ore and grains, or semi-manufactured goods with little added value, such as soybean meal and timber.

Only 6% represented manufactured products with high added value, such as tractors and airplanes.

Currently, approximately 45% of the country's exports is composed of raw materials and semi-manufactured goods, while 55% are manufactured products.

The items that experienced the highest rates of growth were aircraft (66.6%) and tractors (90.4%).

The Brazilian record in terms of the percentage of manufactured goods exported was in 1993, when 59% of the country's exports represented this category of products.

The chief regions to which Brazil's exports increased in 2004 were the Mercosur (57.1%) - to Argentina alone the growth amounted to 61.7%); the ALADI (Latin American Integration Association, made up of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela), with a 48.8% growth rate when it comes to the non-Mercosur members; Africa (48.4%); the Middle East (31.4%); the European Union (30.9%); Asia (24.7%); Eastern Europe (22.7%); and the United States (20.4%).