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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (63970)	6/17/2006 3:52:11 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

My Weird Thought of the Day is That the FED Folks are acting like the market correctly gamed their intention to pause either at, or, with the JUN 29 Meeting. The protest is too loud, too sustained, and rather desperate. I'm also noticing how many of them are saying "they had no pre-concieved ideas" about how to vote at that JUN 29 meeting. Oh Yeah.? Is that right? Add in the fact the FF futures and the market are 100% convinced they'll hike again--and the volatility in FF futures--and I really do wonder. FF futures have shown me little, reliable predictive value. I'll say this: the market has no doubt given them the hike. So they can do the hike now painlessly. But the market has not granted them a no-change in language, imo. If that meeting ends with a hike, and no pause signal or chage in language, I don't believe the equity markets are set up for that yet. An entire Summer of "The FED is waiting and seeing" is not going to cut it for global equities. And, I'd venture to say that if the FED does play it like that, by the time the AUG meeting comes around, they may find themselves with a lack of flexibility on the other side of the equation. The FED, through Greg Ip at the WSJ and through other FED govs clearly laid out a Pause Path beginning in January of 2006. I would have advised Bernanke to stick with that path. But he didn't. He wavered, strangley, after the Pause Testimony to congress with his dalliance over cocktails 4 days later with Maria B. That might have been all she wrote... LP