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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: koan who wrote (13728)	6/17/2006 11:35:34 PM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78421

The problem is as I see it, and you should too, is that assigning risk factors to stockalia is what is hard hard hard. You cannot do it off the top of your head. Is GML a good stock because it has good intersections in flavour-of-the-month Ecuador despite management who have allegedly been everywhere but hell? Will Ecuador Mongoliate? On the other hand will history tell us? I find that history can assign values to poly-wolly-risk very well. I hate hate hate AK for its envi lobby of mouth-breathing richalia who dislike industry. It isn't tourism alone that is keeping them there. People who make a billion in mining stocks and then lobby to keep benign unpolluting work beneficiating santa claus mines out of AK because of their ignorance take my breath away. But I regress. Ignorance is the misery of those who have to endure it in others. Sticking to a disciplined slate may work. Put on the leather and the chrome studs and stick to the whips and scorns of outrageous fortune-hunting. Only tick of a factor if your hired slave help says yes when stretched to the limit on the rack. Refuse brokers with bile and scorn. Hire a broker just to give you tips that you scream back into the phone at him are drivel because his father married his sister. Then hand over the car to a grade four class to judge for logical value. If they say yes, then buy, and have an congenital idiot sell them for you at random. You should make money if you don't overthink it. I know some people who are prescient about drops in value of the market. they never seem to know if it is going up but always if it will go down. I know a lot about its rising but am blind often to its falls. You have to put the two together. Probably a fund of pessimists who sell, and optimists who buy would work. Gann made 50 million on the market with his methods. Thorp about a 100 million. Shannon perhaps 20 million in today's dollars. Mathematical weakness or not, when you can put your money where your mouth is, it may pay to listen. Nobody is accusing Gann, Shannon or Thorpe of being idiots. Most of what you may hear that is negative is sour grapes. The most spectacular failure of the formula group is Black Scholes. Whilst mathematicians hailed their theorem and it formed the basis for options pricing, their company LTCM, failed miserably when groups on the other side of the option calls reneged on the deals and gold went against their position. Prediction counts heavily. What they should have done is hedge. Pricing is not all. I guess they were hedged but bet somewhere wrong. It is impossible to corner the market in puts and calls. This is evinced by the rule of commodities as put forth by Pareto. You cannot increase gain in a market wihout hurting some sector of it. EC<:-}