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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (64035)	6/18/2006 5:32:59 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

i like that Euro fund--it's very easy to get in and out of with minimal slippage. in anticipation of those other ETFs, i haven't bothered buying any more FX bonds. what i found was that i never held them to maturity, because the currency gains came quickly and overwhelmed the coupon. but selling early has major spread costs in FX bonds so they are not appropriate as trading vehicles. except Brazil--i bought back a bunch of the BRL-denominated 12.5's of 2016 after the emerging markets (and BRL/USD) swooned.

To: gregor_us who wrote (64035)	6/18/2006 5:40:38 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

i read an interesting article in the latest Harper's on Iran--written by a Brit who's been living there for six years. he had an interesting quote from Zbigniew Brzezinski, the gist of which was that if the US attacks Iran, it's game over for the US hegemony. he thinks Iraq is something we will get a "pass" on, especially if we withdraw (basically, that is true as the major countries of the world still support US hegemony and prop up our c/a deficit). but if we invade Iran, the whole world will turn against us, and it will take the US 20 or 30 years to get over, if ever. obviously one victim of an Iran invasion would be the USD, so there is some currency risk there. don't know how realistic the invasion prospects are, though. it is hard to predict the behavior of irrational zealots with supreme power, such as Qaddafi, Kim Jong-il, or the US President.