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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (73363)	6/19/2006 8:38:08 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

I would think there is a difference between what happened now, and in October 2005. In October the market made a higher low before a reversal. Now it broke down again, which generated a sell. A buy at October lows will be consistent with our system, which does not care about these levels. Also, if we get to October lows, I think that would indicate October 2006 could be a lot worse. On the other hand, lots of $$$ have been injected by the Treasury ($40 billion or so) on Thursday prior to expiration, which was the main cause for the market rally. The market remains completely liquidity-driven. I think such manipulation has in the past cancelled bearish technical patterns.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (73363)	6/19/2006 10:04:21 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

NDX topped in January, formed a right shoulder in May, and broke down now to October 2005 lows. Weekly charts look like a giant head formation, again. Not exactly bullish behavior, not to mention the break of a bullish trend line since 2002! So did Nasdaq. Broke a major trend line. Time to be careful? You bet! SP500 has bounced from the trend line that goes back to October 2005 lows. I'm still seeing these manipulation volume blocks on the quote.com live chart for the DOW, though. Will it work again? The problem that I see with that is that the market participants are totally dependent on this Fed printing. Bears are long gold, and try not to short, bulls are long, well, stocks. Both have been bruised badly in the recent slide, some more leveraged ones wiped out. So, who will buy if the Fed fails? The answer is nobody.