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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (64281)	6/21/2006 2:22:41 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jun 21 2006 12:59 trotsky (mugwump) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, i meant of course aside from the ongoing, normal looting that has already been institutionalized. the war is a more specific looting operation, since it mainly benefits only a very small group with excellent connections to the current rulers of the roost. the main reason why the democrats are so reluctant to endorse the anti-war sentiment of their own support base is imo probably that they figure their turn to grab some of the loot is close by. Date: Wed Jun 21 2006 12:54 trotsky (Aurum & Wiffo) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Ukraine experienced an INflationary bust. what does the money velocity chart really tell us? it's main ( indirect ) message is that it takes ever MORE credit to create less and less GDP growth. this is consistent with the data from the past 5 years, that show total US credit market debt expanding by roughly $12 trillion while output rose by $2 trillion ( iow, for every dollar in purported - and overstated - GDP growth, 6 dollars in additional debt were required ) . this is inherently deflationary - i.e. a situation in which the debtberg becomes so large relative to the underlying economy that the most likely outcome is a credit contraction via defaults and paralyzed financial intermediation. the gravest danger is probably posed by the banking system's exposure to mortgage credit, which comprises a historical record of 63% of all bank assets. there is only one way an inflationary resolution could come about - the proverbial helicopters becoming literal ones. this is to say, the Fed would need to change its modus operandi, and begin to buy up assets ( such as houses, stocks ) and perhaps even defaulted loans. this is of course possible, but it is not likely, since by deliberately destroying the currency at a faster than normal speed, the Fed would rob itself of its power. also, by the time the bureaucrats decide to actually implement such a new m.o., the nadir of the contraction has probably already passed. Date: Wed Jun 21 2006 12:40 trotsky (mozel@Iraq) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved you may need to acquaint yourself with a few facts. from the Christian Science monitor: "Iraq is becoming 'free fraud' zone Corruption in Iraq under US-led CPA may dwarf UN oil-for-food scandal." csmonitor.com note, this is only what is KNOWN. most of the fraud has likely occurred well under anyone's radar - and all investigations have been blocked by means of the government playing the 'national security' card. what else do we know? a war that was supposed to 'pay for itself' ( via looting of Iraq's oil ) has ALREADY cost MORE than the entire Vietnam war in both nominal and real terms. this is not counting the indirect costs, such as caring for disabled veterans ( in Iraq, most US soldiers that get attacked aren't killed due to their superior body armor - instead they are grievously maimed for life ) , lowering of GDP growth via high oil prices, higher interest costs due to exploding budget deficits, etc. it is definitely certain who profits from the mess - the war profiteers ( such as Halliborton or Bechtel ) are all very close to the war's instigators. this is known as a 'tax-payer looting operation'. if you know of a bigger one, name it. Date: Wed Jun 21 2006 12:12 trotsky (Aurum@velocity) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved money velocity has not recovered - it remains in territory consistent with a deflationary bust: economagic.com Date: Wed Jun 21 2006 11:46 trotsky (mugwump, 10:55) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved what IS definitely true is that Iranian citizens have been hoarding gold in recent months out of fear of sanctions and/or a military confrontation. it also seems likely that the Iranian government has taken some precautions to avert a freezing of its overseas assets. however, this particular story isn't credible due to its sources. it's similar to Ahmed Chalabi's tall tales.