Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : NKTR Drug delivery Company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (41)	6/22/2006 12:11:13 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 507

It comes down to patient compliance. There are perhaps worse outcomes than impaired lung function if the patient is non-compliant. If a patient asserts that he'd be more likely to take his snorts of Exubera than to stick himself with Byetta or whatever, I, as a doctor might be correspondingly less reluctant to prescribe it. Pfizer gets to launch while Lilly/Amylin are having manufacturing constraints. So I think the launch may actually go better than expected. The other issue is insurance coverage. One analyst thinks Exubera might have a harder time winning coverage because it's only a new form of an existing treatment. I don't really follow his logic. Again, it comes back to compliance. If insurers feel patients will be more compliant on Euxbera, they'll cover it. The cost of non-compliance outweighs the additional cost of the delivery system. Hard to say. My modest bet says it will win slow acceptance after a fast start. But there will certainly be doctors and patients who share your misgivings, and the patients will then endure the daily sticking pain to save their lung function, I guess. This probably hasn't helped much, and is certainly not new thinking, but hey, you did ask. Sorry I did not produce a more definitive answer. Given your mindset, I'd say just stay away, don't short, don't long. Cheers, Tuck