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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocket Red who wrote (14378)	6/25/2006 3:58:51 PM
From: 4C	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78412

Hi Rocket, here is my worthless opinion: --Raise .25 and not mention this being the last one: Markets, including Gold, will have a downward bias till August. --Raise .25 and call it the final one for now: One hell of a rally everywhere --Don't raise now and say they are done for now: General market will get spooked and go down thinking fed is seeing a recession, which is not yet priced in the market. Gold will be dragged down. --Raise .50 and call it final for now: Markets will react badly for a maybe a day or so, then rally like hell. --Raise .50 and mention more to come: Crash I personally favor the first one, BWDIK. STF

To: Rocket Red who wrote (14378)	6/25/2006 3:59:27 PM
From: loantech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78412

Might cause gold to sell off but eventually the real reason to raise rates will be to defend the dollar. It will not work. Rates will go up and gold will go up more. That is the scenario I have waited years for. In late 79 and 80 rates were over 14-15% and gold hit 850. so contrary to popular belief as rates rise so will gold at some point. Maybe sooner rather than later.

To: Rocket Red who wrote (14378)	6/25/2006 5:42:00 PM
From: Hergron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78412

not too sure on what will happen, but my tech-a shows a sell on the cbot monday or tuesday. Hopefully, it will finish the gap retrace and at least channel for awhile. I cannot see it going below 550 anytime soon

To: Rocket Red who wrote (14378)	6/25/2006 7:00:05 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78412

Red .... Its a good question, but perhaps the wrong question. As a thought experiment ..... Lets forget about gold for 1 minute and look at the markets (I am defining markets as the NYSE and NAZ) and just speculate that they are already entering a bear market. (Note: the logic/rationale/etc. for why we are entering a bear market is given in a long piece in Barrons this week and not worth detailing here) Now if we truly are entering a bear market - my question is: How has gold done in bear markets? i.e. gold stocks versus the overall markets also lets not forget that 1 bear market lasted from 1965 to 1982 according to the Barrons article. the underpinnings of that bear market (I'm an old fart and lived thru it) were: (a) Vietnam leads to high inflation (b) poor USA productivity (c) gas prices sky rocketed from 30 cents to a dollar (d) interest rates went to the moon (e) Volker came in and raised rates higher to (1) increae unemployment and (2) kill off inflation (f) there was NOT too much USA $$$ floating around in the world (I think) back then (g) total USA debt (of all kinds) was not 70% of GNP now called GDP. (I got the 70% number from a Mish post) (h) I know gold went to the moon based on ... not sure I remember .... (i) could I expect gold to also goto the moon again these different times and circumstances ... which gets back too .... How would gold do if we are really entering a bear market? Note: I am a bigot and have never considered gold as a commodity. I see it as a replacement currency for the dollar in times of super inflated money growth .... but it appears that the central bankers for the same or different reasons have all decided [right now ] to tighten up now (meaning pull liquidity from their money supplies) Sorry for the long windedness of this post ... regards, John McCarthy