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To: John McCarthy who wrote (14430)6/25/2006 9:13:16 PM
From: maxncompany  Respond to of 78416
 
You need to read reports of what is going on in India and China. Besides, a US slowdown is only a slowdown, not a stoppage.

The other part to consider. In the scenario you describe for the US, the dollar should go down big. Gold would likely do the opposite.



To: John McCarthy who wrote (14430)6/25/2006 10:21:51 PM
From: koan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78416
 
John, just to muddy the waters up a bit-lol, Bernanke knows he cannot allow a recession or deflation. Japan has been a huge lesson to all. And you and I are not the only ones who know the deficit would grow substantially in a deflationary environment-grin. So it seems to me Bernanke has to keep liquidity in the system.

Plus a recession in two years would sink the republicans.

That means the feds will need to add liquidity (I think) which benefits the rest of the world.

One thing I would say, is believe asia is smoking. It is true our creation of tons of money and Japan's creation of cheap money is how asia got to where they are so fast, but they have reached critical mass now, in my opinion.

China has more computers and cell phones than the US and now imports more oil. They are the forth largest economy after the US, Japan and Germany.

And as I have mentioned, asians dominate every major public university on the west coast being about 50% of the student body of Berkeley, UC Irvine and UC Davis.

Japan has the most educated populace in the world and is how they got where they are today. China is following their footsteps. India produces 5 times as many engineers as we do and China produces 10 times as many, as I remember. or the other way around-lol.

And we owe China alone almost one trillion dollars alone.

If I had been Bernanke I would have turned the job down-lol. I think he is in a no win situation.