To: Kirk © who wrote (22167 ) 6/29/2006 11:18:09 PM From: Honey_Bee Read Replies (1) | Respond to Bob Brinker's opening monologue last Saturday was a short history lesson about the stock market--from his viewpoint. It was an unusually long monologue, but I think it is very interesting, so I transcribed it. But it has to do with something that I regard as very, very important, and that is mega-trends, also known as, secular-trends. Now, secular, in this case, does not mean studying for the clergy, secular, in this case, means over very, very long periods of time that are best described as mega-trends. Now, when you take a look at the mega-trends, let’s go back all the way to the early part of the twentieth century, you could start with one of the shortest mega-trends of all time and that was the secular-bull mega-trend that lasted from 1921 until September of 1929. Now that eight-year secular mega-trend, or secular bull market, was really a good one when the market roared ahead, chalked up gains approaching 500% in the major indexes and it was very, very rewarding, but it also required identification of a top, because that secular bull market, which was very unusual in that it only lasted eight years, it ended with a catastrophic decline. In fact, the decline that started in September of 1929, when the secular bull mega-trend ended, the decline that started then, which kicked off the secular bear mega-trend that lasted from 1929, September, all the way out to the summer of 1949, which is a very, very long period of time. We are talking a 19 ¾ -year secular bear mega-trend. That started with the worst cyclical bear of all time. investment.suite101.com
