To: puborectalis who wrote (743923 ) 6/27/2006 4:48:05 PM From: Hope Praytochange Respond to of 769667 Economy on the right track: BMA By Sara Hansard June 27, 2006 The Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates, the economy will continue expanding at a moderating pace and inflation will show signs of easing, according to the mid-year survey of the Bond Market Association's Economic Advisory Committee released in Washington today. Committee members, who include senior economists from 29 major brokerage firms, unanimously expect the central bank to raise the target Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets Jun 28-29. The Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates by another 25 basis points before the end of the year, and then reduce rates by a quarter-point in early 2007, according to the committee. Gross domestic product will grow by 3.4% this year and drop to 2.9% in 2007 as the economic cycle matures, the committee said. Consumer spending will moderate over the next year, and business capital spending will continue to lead economic growth. The threat of higher inflation is the biggest short-term concern in the markets. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, used by the Federal Reserve to gauge inflation, are expected to reach 2.9% this year - "above the comfort level for many financial market participants," according to Michael Decker, senior vice president and head of policy and research in the Washington office of BMA. "The surprise has been not only the extent to which energy prices have risen further... but the fact that core inflation has also edged up," said Robert DiClemente, chairman of the committee and head of U.S. economic and market analysis at Citigroup Global Markets. The public, the market, investors and business officials have become "more concerned" about the long-term inflation outlook, he said. That concern has driven the Federal Resreve's resolve to try to cap inflation by continuing to raise interest rates, he said.