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To: sammy™ -_- who wrote (300)	6/27/2006 11:11:36 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8247

4 Year Presidential Cycle bigpicture.typepad.com Technical Analysis I have always wondered how the Presidential Cycle plays out in the 2nd term of a Presidency; Unfortunately, there are not enough post-war 2 termers around -- Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton -- to draw any firm conclusions as to how this year's cycle may unfold this year. Regardless, this is an informative chart from Birinyi Associates: Average S&P 500 Performance During Year Two of a Presidential Term: 1962 - 2006 We've discussed this phenomena many times in the past; Note the big failure year for the cycle was 1986, with the correction low postponed to 1987. Birinyi Associates observes: As the table [below] details, there is some truth to this theory as the second year has been the worst of the four-year cycle in over half of the 11 full cycles since 1962, and it is the only one with an average negative return. We also plotted the YTD performance of the S&P 500 this year vs. the average second year return since 1962. As the chart (above) shows, there is a good degree of similarity between the patterns of this year vs. prior years.