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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (4349)	6/29/2006 7:01:15 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24210

Update [2006-6-28 9:48:48 by Leanan]: Data released from MEES today show OPEC production still declining from October's high. OPEC oil production in May fell 105,000 b/d to 29.345mn b/d from a revised April figure of 29.45mn b/d after Saudi Arabia’s April production was adjusted down to 9.1mn b/d for that month. Total OPEC output fell on a decline in Iraqi production as well as lower Saudi and Iranian oil exports in the month (MEES, 19 June). Production by the OPEC-10 (OPEC without Iraq) was up 75,000 b/d at 27.445mn b/d from a revised 27.37mn b/d in April, well below the 28mn b/d ceiling that has been in place since 1 July 2005. The May estimates have seen Saudi Arabia fall below its quota for the first time since late 1998 as it responds to lower refiner demand for its heavy crude, while Iran has unusually posted two straight months of relatively low exports. Iranian production comprised 2.145mn b/d of exports with deliveries to refineries at 1.5mn b/d. and a follow-up comment According to Middle East Economic Survey (http://www.mees.com/) Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Production: Jul 2005 9,520 Aug 2005 9,550 Sep 2005 9,550 Oct 2005 9,520 Nov 2005 9,500 Dec 2005 9,480 Jan 2006 9,450 Feb 2006 9,450 Mar 2006 9,450 Apr 2006 9,100 May 2006 9,050 Notice the drop starting Apr 2006. And... westexas on Wednesday June 28, 2006 at 11:00 AM EST According to the EIA, in recent months oil production from all four of the top net oil exporters--SA; Russia; Norway & Iran--has been trending down. Let's consider the four largest producing oil fields in the world. The only real question is Ghawar, but given the drop in production in SA and given the 8% decline in existing fields that the Saudis admitted to, it seems highly likely that Ghawar is almost certainly declining. The other three largest fields--Cantarell; Burgan and Daqing--are all declining. IMO, we are going to see a series of bidding/demand destruction cycles for declining net oil export capacity. I predict that we will see: (1) a decline in net exports; (2) a price increase as available exports are allocated to the high bidders; (3) followed by demand destruction among the low bidders. And the cycle repeats again. I think that we just finished one bidding/demand destruction cycle, and we are just now starting on another one. theoildrum.com