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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (52919)	6/28/2006 8:43:28 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

These are the average monthly returns for the MSCI All Country Gross Index in USD from 1997 to date: Was that thier claim? I thought they said US equities and SP500 futures? Are you investing globally MOO? After inserting a dummy variable to account for the impact of the two identified outliers, the Halloween effect becomes statistically insignificant. This anomaly is not economically exploitable for U.S. equity markets. We extend the research to the S&P 500 futures contract and find no evidence of an exploitable Halloween effect over the period April 1982-April 2003. Based on your data though why shouldn't we take a 9 month vacation and only go long the market from oct to dec? Short it in sep? What ETF do you recommend I buy in october to capture the "all country gross index" - is there one? IOO seems to be all I can find. Some people make a living from trading as individuals That is true - I had a friend named bald man from mars here on SI that was certain the nasdaq was going to crash in 2000 - back in 99 he bet his house on shorting it - he was right - we all would watch the market go up and baldie rip out a few more hairs! hehe He got margin calls on the way up before the big blowup and lost everything - his house - his wife left him - etc etc - he ripped all his hair out KNOWING he was right but losing all his money. He was vindicated a few months later after he was financially wiped out - the nasdaq did crash - his knowledge didn't make him rich though - his poor timing broke him. I often wondered how many similar people got sucked in like baldie while the brokers laughed all the way to the bank. The main thing that makes it win in all market conditions now is stop loss orders I post about the philster a lot - however last year from my SWAG he made the brokers a lot of money in trading fees - he is a big advocate of stop loss orders too - it always seemed to me the specialists would move the prices just enough to blow up all those stop loss orders and then snap the price back - notice they are holding hearings on specialists/market makers right now who GAMED the system you are trying to predict. Philster would often say you would lose on 7 or 8 out of 10 trades - but just a little using stop loss - and the 1 or 2 you won on you would win a lot - perhaps your strategy will play out - I want to know your real CONVICTION to your beliefs though - one trader won a CNBC maserati turning one million into 5 million in a few short months - but he didn't have FEAR and EMOTION skewing his decision - he could take wild risks because of this - how much of your net worth are you going to throw at your model and give proof in the pudding? Its one thing to play with 1 mil in funny money and run backtesting - its another to put your nuts out there for real. Like Nike ads say - Just do it - put your future on your model - that is the acid test eh? If you get rich you will be the modern day captain nemo - if not - well - misery loves company and we will be here to support you my friend - you can check out anytime you like - but you can never leave :) Even Baldie came back.