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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (64797)	6/29/2006 9:30:54 AM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't see longer term treasuries influenced to any significant degree by the "buy everything" trade. The cot shows very bearish sentiment by the specs and bullish sentiment by the commercials. Nobody wants long term treasuries right now. It's certainly not a crowded hedge fund play.

To: russwinter who wrote (64797)	6/29/2006 9:54:16 AM
From: basho	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, I share your view that it's only a matter of time before we get hit with a really major liquidity crunch and the accumulated distortions finally start to unwind. I also suspect that when that time comes, the CBs may well react too slowly, at least for a while. Still, when I look at the extent of the selloffs in a whole range of markets in the last 6 weeks or so, they strike me as pretty serious so I struggle a bit with your picture of continued "in your face" risk taking. Just as a partial list, here are some top to bottom "corrections" expressed as a %: Copper 26% Lead 33% Nickel 24% Tin 21% Zinc 27% Aluminium 27% Gold 26% Silver 37% Platinum 19% Palladium 33% EEM (MSCI Emerging) 27% IFN (India Fund) 43% EWJ (Japan) 20% HGX (Housing Index) 31% DAX (Germany) 16% FTSE (UK) 15% IWM (Russell 2000) 15% NDX 14% Most of these markets are not all that far off their lows and as far as I can see there's quite a lot of fear out there. Certainly, the sentiment gauges for the US stock market are almost all coming off levels of bearishness rarely seen in recent years. None of this means the markets can't crash from here but it looks the low odds bet in the short term at least. Maybe the BOJ's possible capitulation is a sign that the madness we witnessed up til 6-8 weeks ago has at least a brief encore to perform before it finally gets yanked off the stage.