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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (64808)	6/29/2006 10:36:35 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ: I Think the AUD is Getting Very Close Now. The set-up has been brewing, with the comedown vis a vis commodities, while you have divergent macro developments like the 100% paydown of all the Debt the Howard govt inherited from the previous govt. Plus, you've also got the myriad agricultural and mining boards (quasi-state agencies) that have been trickling out their forecasts for fiscal 2007, and the growth of commodity sales looks good (these tend to be conservative forecasts). Finally, you've got a rebound in forecasts for monetary policy, suggesting the RBA will start hiking again later this year. Oh, and let's throw in the fact that many Australian resource companies are probably acquisition targets, excepting the giants RioTinto, and BHP. (BTW, I had no idea the AUD had become the 4th most traded currency.) My call would be the AUD is going to ramp pretty hard, soon. The first ramp will be sold. I tend to view .7400 as the oscillator level. The Sentiment tends to get accellerated above that level, with bullishness ramping above there, and bearishness ramping below there. One wonders the first ramp challenges the high .74's, then gets sold back down to .7400. BTW, I don;t trade the currency. But, I've been watching it now for almost 10 years, and I do buy and sell longer term investments partly based on the AUD rhythms. Best, Gregor

To: russwinter who wrote (64808)	6/29/2006 10:52:11 AM
From: basho	Respond to of 110194

Uncle Earl is certainly the standout performer. Whether this is due to speculative enthusiasm or more solidly based supply/demand considerations is unfortunately above my pay grade. That natural gas is languishing so badly -- even taking seasonal considerations into account -- may points towards the latter explanation. Oil is also of course in a class of its own for the moment because of geopolitical considerations. As for the rest, the percentage retracements of the recent drop range from 16-17% (NDX and silver) to a high end of around 34-38% (eg copper, palladium, DAX) with the average probably somewhere around the mid to high 20's. I do agree with you that the speculative juices have by no means been killed off yet, just dented. Just about any outcome seems possible in the short term.