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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: roguedolphin who wrote (1998)	6/29/2006 2:37:52 PM
From: dumpyork49ers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50210

I will SHORT! SHORT! SHORT! the suckers rally. Pigeons flock...eagles fly alone...I really like that...it is so true. People never change :)

To: roguedolphin who wrote (1998)	6/29/2006 9:52:54 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 50210

re: ["...the markets shout BUY! BUY! BUY!"] Or, did the markets just shout: End of the Quarter -- Mark Up! Mark Up! Mark Up! Once again... more money will ultimately be made -- and most importantly "kept"...by asking the right questions versus seeking the right answers: Today we saw the marking up of the end of the 2nd quarter, some short covering and momentum traders pouring into the exact same trades that they just recently got liquidated from?!?! ...all on the assumption that the Fed will soon (another .25bp in August) end rate hikes. Hmmm? What an original thought... They think they just received the "answer" they sought -- a "signal" that the U.S. Fed would soon end the rate hikes (one more in August). In my humble(not) opinion... it matters not whether the Fed has just one more, two more, or three more rate hikes in store -- as the damage has already been done...and is already embedded in the economic pipeline. Given the still yet to be seen lag effect of the past 17 consecutive Fed rate hikes on the U.S. economy (not to mention the bursting of the -- use your home as your own personal "ATM" Refinance/Housing Bubble)...and the propensity of the Fed always "going too far" -- sending the U.S. into a recession... The question commodity bulls should be asking is this: -- Will a U.S. recession trump the end of the Fed Rate hike cycle? Another question they should have been asking it this: -- Is this really -- "all about the U.S. Fed"...or, is this a global Central Bank phenomena? Commodity Bulls have short memories... What just happened when the BOJ removed the "Yen Carry Trade" punch bowl? For traders, the trade of late was really quite simple: 1. To have rang the cash register & banked the profits on the bulk of the portfolio in late April/early May. 2. To then have bought insurance (called "puts") on what you let ride...which turned into more than "just insurance" -- becoming a rather profitable trade in it's own right. 3. And to now patienly wait for the crowd to chase yet another popular delusion and to create yet another discrepancy between price and risk... that we can once again step in and seize. a.k.a. "Play the Players -- Not the Cards." If you want to win the World of Series of Poker -- you don't do it by betting "every hand"... nor, by going "all in" on every other hand. Patience is the most valuable skill among great Poker players and great Traders. It is also the hardest skill to learn. For those that -- "didn't get greedy" and banked this recent run and hopefully bought at least "some" insurance if not laid on some short trades...this is: -- a great time to take a break from the market, to enjoy the summer holidays & vacations, your family, your hobbies and to rest, recharge and revitalize yourself. -- a great time to step back and take a fresh look at the market. -- a great time to be patient. -- a great time to be asking the right questions instead of seeking only the right answers. "I do not always have all the right answers...but, rarely am I not asking the right questions..." Saturday... the first of: "The 3 Big Lies you've been told about Gold." Later, SliderOnTheBlack