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To: Gib Bogle who wrote (14829)6/30/2006 7:09:08 AM
From: E. Charters  Respond to of 78419
 
Homer Simpson Replies:

I think the calcs that the student was having chaos with were an artifact of the computer, and not of the nature he was studying. In fact with large numbers of calcs, the fractional rounding will cause near chaotic behaviour in any indexing program. Weather involves millions of calcs so something as simple as 3 decimals to 6 would cause quick break down and deviation. It happened on the VSE when they implemented an indexing system. It's chaotic breakdown was simply rounding error of binary fractions.

I admit that is only one stab. It may not be that simple. If you look at all the systems that are chaotic, they are relatively simple fizzikal systems that I admit have to be modeled from one state as they induce perversely complex behaviour. Anyone knows that to have one hammer swinging is one thing, but to add another hammer below that will get you knees a-knocking quickly. There is no way to control it.

When you add in millions of molecules however I believe you get a spring-adjustment effect, and the whole thing smooths out again.

Weather could be chaotic at one point, where the flux could get harmonic and reverbrate in some strange way. It may not rain above a bridge on sundays, whereas 20 feet away it never hails. But the weather for a county could not mxlftlsplx often. After all if we are getting it right 33% or 66% 3 days out today, then it could be a matter of computure horsepower. Back to the Laplacian breach and one million linux computers. The stupid never rest.

EC<:-}



To: Gib Bogle who wrote (14829)6/30/2006 10:14:06 AM
From: LLCF  Respond to of 78419
 
<Well, if weather is chaotic, as seems to be the case (and as was certainly the case with Lorenz's extremely simple model) then it is deterministic but not predictable.>

Exactly.... like my wife!!

And the stock market.

dAK