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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (65055)	7/1/2006 2:10:59 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 110194

yeah, i remember that, and in fact had that in mind. so, population adjustments and other such sophistry aside, already SD is at ATH inventory. what i am saying is that, at least in bubblezones, it seems inventory is not just returning to "normal" but zooming past it to terribly b*rish levels. suggesting a crsh is in the not too distant future. not too much has been discussed re: the uniqueness of the current br market in terms of the high likelihood of significant nominal declines, and what this means for the unfolding of price action and secondary effects (on financial system, economy, etc.). my thought is that if you have 50% real declines while nominal flatlines over 5-8 yrs, that is a br market but not necessarily a financial crisis (although of course you could have one of those, too)... the price flatline is good, since it allows you a "slow bleed" and gives incomes time to catch up with debt. BUT: if you have lower inflation (i think everyone will admit that wage inflation at least is MUCH lower than in past decades) such as we have today, then income is not going to catch up w/debt servicing (especially as ARMs reset), so the likelihood of a cr*sh is much greater.