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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: quartersawyer who wrote (53058)7/2/2006 1:04:21 PM
From: Srini  Respond to of 197013
 
Anil Ambani’s GSM move sets a cat among pigeons

Nivedita Mookerji


Will he junk CDMA? The costs are prohibitive. So what's the gameplan?

NEW DELHI: Reliance Communications Ventures Ltd' application to the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) seeking spectrum for GSM services across the country has triggered a theory that the Anil Ambani-owned CDMA major may move over to GSM technology over a period of time.

A source in the government said, "the Reliance application suggests that the group wants to move over to GSM".

It is learnt that the group has sought spectrum for GSM services across the country, wherever it's available.

Also, Reliance Telecom, which already operates GSM services in eight circles with 2 million users, is planning a significant expansion with an investment of around Rs 1,500 crore.

This has come as a surprise as Reliance Communications already has almost 20 million CDMA users in the country.

Tata Teleservices, the other major CDMA player in the country which would be left alone if Reliance makes a switchover to GSM, was not available for comment.

Reliance Communications, which has been tight-lipped so far, has come out with an official comment on the issue on Thursday.

A company spokesperson said, "We are committed to pursue the world's leading mobile technologies, whether CDMA or GSM, to provide the best and most competitive services to our many million customers".

Industry interpretation of this statement has been varied.

An analyst argued that "it's all about spectrum play" as telecom mobile players representing both GSM and CDMA have been demanding more spectrum than what they are being allocated.

However, a DoT official said, "It may not be easy for Reliance to get additional spectrum for GSM services, unless they surrender some of their CDMA spectrum".

DoT, it is learnt, has asked Reliance for details on their GSM rollout plan and as to where it would like to vacate its CDMA spectrum.

If it's not for more spectrum, the switchover to GSM could be for the high royalty fee being charged by CDMA technology licensor Qualcomm, a source said.

While in India, Qualcomm charges a royalty in the range of $13 to $15 per CDMA chip, it's much less at around $3 in countries such as China and Korea, the source added. Qualcomm officials refused to comment on any issue.

As against GSM's open platform, CDMA is a proprietary technology. That's the reason why a CDMA subscriber has to buy a handset from a service provider such as Reliance or Tata Teleservices.

Giving an industry view, Ernst & Young head of telecom practice (India), Prashant Singhal, said a CDMA operator may not logically like to switch over to GSM completely because there is a huge cost involved.

Singhal said that the two technologies - GSM and CDMA - can perhaps merge for 3G services.

Also, if Reliance has to exit from CDMA, it needs to refund the handset cost to the subscriber or provide him with a GSM handset, an industry source said.

In the case of Reliance handsets, they are network-locked. There's no grey market also for such handsets, it is believed. With 20 million CDMA subscribers, the cost for handset itself would alone come to around Rs 5,000 crore (if a handset costs Rs 2,500). Also, it would lead to a high-degree of customer dissatisfaction.

Another problem is that of equipment, if there's no exchange. It is learnt that Reliance sources its equipment from Lucent, which is only into CDMA. "So, exchange will be an issue," the source said.

Besides, CDMA players will have a 3G advantage when it is launched, it is understood.

Globally, the Spain-headquartered Telefonica, a CDMA player, is one of the operators to have made a technology switch of some kind. But in regions such as Latin America, where the operator got into GSM, Telefonica operates both GSM and CDMA.

India is a GSM-centric country like most in other parts of the world. The US and Korea are considered CDMA countries in a big way. In India, there are 75 million GSM mobile subscribers, against 26 million CDMA subscribers. Globally, there are 2 billion GSM users and 318 million CDMA subscribers.

Meanwhile, China, which is the leading mobile phone country with over 400 million cellphone users, is experimenting with a home-grown technology-TDCDMA-for launching 3G services later this year.






To: quartersawyer who wrote (53058)7/2/2006 1:09:43 PM
From: Srini  Respond to of 197013
 
80:20 reality could have fuelled Anil’s GSM switch

Nivedita Mookerji


Despite higher growth rates over last one year, CDMA may have been losing the war.

NEW DELHI: Anil Ambani’s Reliance Communications made waves last week when it announced a phased switchover to GSM (global system of mobile)-based services from CDMA (code division multiple access). But a close look at growth numbers in the two technologies shows that CDMA is currently doing better than GSM.

Both in India and abroad, GSM is much larger than CDMA in terms of subscriber numbers, but the latter does better in terms of growth. Over the last 12 months, CDMA subscriptions in India have been growing at an average monthly rate of 5.17% (Vs GSM’s 4.65%). Even in terms of annual rates, CDMA has been growing faster since 2002, when Reliance launched its services. The only blip is 2006, when GSM crossed CDMA’s growth rate (upto May) by notching up a rate of 28.5% (Vs 26%).

So what made Anil Ambani consider switching horses midstream? Analysts mention concerns about the technology royalty fees payable to licensor Qualcomm as one reason. Another reason could be customer pressure over the lack of flexibility: unlike GSM handsets, CDMA ones are locked to the operator. Moreover, with CDMA being the standard only in the US and Korea, international roaming is a problem for users. The thirst for more spectrum could be another reason for Ambani’s proposed shift.

The real reason for the proposed switch could, however, be the 80:20 rule and the network effect. When 80% of global users have opted for GSM, persisting with CDMA for the remaining 20% comes at a cost to users. The value of a network grows exponentially with the number of users in it, and if GSM has achieved global critical mass, CDMA will find it difficult to win the war without doing something dramatic happening fairly quickly.

Even though CDMA’s growth has been fairly robust since 2001 (see chart), in terms of absolute numbers it is nowhere near GSM. As against 1,820 million GSM users across the world as of March, 2006, CDMA had only 250 million subscribers (excluding the 3G user base). If 3G users are taken into account, the GSM base has crossed 2 billion and CDMA’s 318 million.

In India, GSM is way ahead with 75.2 million users, while CDMA has managed 31.5 million, including wireline and fixed-wireless users. GSM players in India include Bharti, Hutch, Idea and BSNL, while Reliance Telecom has over 2 million GSM users in eight circles. CDMA is represented mainly by Reliance Communications and Tata Teleservices.

GSM’s lead in mobile telephony can be traced to its headstart. It was introduced globally in the early 1990s. The first CDMA network was launched by Hutchison in 1995, but the more efficient CDMA 2000 was introduced only in the year 2000 by South Korea Telecom. In India, the GSM journey began in 1995. CDMA picked up in India only after Reliance launched its service in December, 2002.

Over the past one year, the mobile telephony subscriber base has shown renewed vigour in India after a series of innovative schemes were launched by players. CDMA player Tata Teleservices’ `free incoming’ offer without paying any rental for two years set off a trend, but it was GSM players who ultimately profited from it when they quickly followed suit.

Monthly figures for the past one year show that the growth rate of CDMA has been better than GSM in eight out of 12 months, but this is largely explainable by CDMA’s lower subscriber base. In the last three months, however, GSM has recorded a higher growth rate than CDMA.

If Anil Ambani’s move towards GSM signals anything more than an effort to get a better deal from Qualcomm on royalties, GSM may be on its way to long-term leadership in India. It will leave Tatas as the lone major players in CDMA in the medium term.






To: quartersawyer who wrote (53058)7/2/2006 2:05:16 PM
From: JeffreyHF  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 197013
 
No matter how many times the Indian press misrepresents the Qualcomm CDMA royalty structure, and its effect on handset pricing, it won`t change the facts. Just like the repetitive, false, Korea Times publications of the fictitious "end of Korean royalties to Qualcomm", the truth doesn`t change. However, it is a disturbing pattern of FUD, coming at a time when Qualcomm seems under pressure from all directions, to essentially give away its inventions. What can`t be coaxed, is threatened to be governmentally confiscated.
I`m glad PJ tried to be flexible, and reasonable, in his dealings with Ambani. From the time Qualcomm backed away from investing $250 million in Reliance, and the company rhetoric began to speak more often of Tata, I`ve had a feeling of discomfort, and malaise.Let Ambani follow the groveling carrots trolled by the GMSA,eager for another flip, and give up his CDMA spectrum. Maybe SK Telecom, Sprint, KDDI, or Unicom would like an opportunity in the growth market of India. Qualcomm will get all of India one day, when WCDMA emerges. It is more important that Qualcomm stand strong, preserve its reasonable royalty structure, and protect its future WCDMA revenues.



To: quartersawyer who wrote (53058)7/2/2006 4:17:33 PM
From: scratchmyback  Respond to of 197013
 
Yet one more comment...

<<Ambani, who had an eight-hour-long meeting with Qualcomm CEO Paul Jacobs, had sought a reduction in handset prices by reducing royalty levies.

"Ambani was open only to a handset price reduction as against the volume-led discount on cost elements, other than royalty, that was being offered by the CDMA technology licensor. He was not ready to settle for anything other than a reduction in handset prices," a source close to the development told Business Standard today.
>>

Doesn't anyone here find this disturbing? If all this Reliance and Vivo stuff is just a ploy from the GSM cabal, it is working pretty well! Paul Jacobs is already offering volume-led discounts, but that is not enough. Who might be the next one to bargain, China or Korea? Or maybe Indonesia, I heard there is one succesful CDMA operator!