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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: booyaka who wrote (65195)	7/4/2006 11:07:50 AM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 110194

Meanwhile, the Coming Free-Float/Convertibility of the Russian Rouble comes at a time when the Big Mac Index of May 2006 suggests that currency is 43% undervalued, against the USD. You gotta wonder that holding Gazprom, for example, is a set-up for an ongoing double pop as the years roll by. ----------------------------------------------------- Rouble emerges from rubble into real world Nick Paton Walsh in Moscow Saturday July 1, 2006 Guardian For years it was the changeable currency of defaults, declines and dodgy wheeler-dealing. But the Russian rouble, riding high on Moscow's burgeoning status as an energy superpower, becomes fully convertible from today as the petrodollar giant unleashes on the world a currency to match its growing economic clout. The move, which will take practical effect when markets open on Monday, follows a series of measures and statements by the Kremlin that show its desire for the currency's renewed international status. The central bank has launched a campaign to find a new "catchy" symbol for the rouble, with polling suggesting that a Latin "R" with two euro-esque horizontal lines is a favourite. A 5,000 rouble (£100) note is also planned to slim down Russian wallets - the largest now is 1,000 roubles. The rouble's convertibility will lessen the government's ability to influence the 800-year-old currency's exchange rate, said Alexei Moisseev, of Renaissance Capital bank. He said the infrastructure would not yet allow Russians to exchange their roubles for euros abroad but the move was a "PR event" for the Russian economy. "A practical consequence will be a significant increase in overseas investment into Russian rouble securities," he said. Oil revenues from Russia's position as the largest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia has swollen its "stabilisation fund", designed to fund social welfare and act as a cushion for economic crises, to £125bn. Yesterday, Russia agreed to pay off the entire Soviet-era debt of about £12.5bn to the Paris Club of sovereign lenders. The rouble has strengthened since 2001 from 32 to the dollar to 26.5 today. It is expected to rise to 25 by the end of the year.

To: booyaka who wrote (65195)	7/4/2006 11:33:13 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Looks like the Sept euroyen yields about 0.52%, data.tradingcharts.com then climbs gradually. The difference betwen the 3 and 6 month bill is only 6 bp, 0.36 vs 0.42%. No wonder Riskloves continue to gamble with impunity. bloomberg.com I'm not sure how to read this, but doesn't appear to be discounting very aggressive tightening, maybe just once by year end? Seems like almost all markets are betting these Wizards are all talk, and not independant of their politicans. Prescription for a disaster if correct, but the trade also seems offside once again? I'll see what the ECB and BOJ does over the next 10 days, but a crack up boom (and a very crowded one) is looking more and more in the cards, scarey.