The fact that North Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or DPRK) was threatened with nuclear weapons during the Korean War, and that for decades afterwards U.S. weapons were deployed in the South, may have helped motivate former president Kim Il Sung to launch a nuclear weapons program of his own. With Soviet help, the program began in the 1960s. China also provided various kinds of support over the next two decades, and by the late 1980s success was near. A milestone was reached with the construction of a 5-megawatt electric (MWe) reactor that began operating in 1986. More recently, Pakistan has played a substantial role in the progress of North Korea's nuclear program.
Ballistic missiles. North Korea has a very active ballistic missile program, carefully documented by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. in a 1999 report published by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Beginning in the 1960s, the Soviet Union supplied various types of missiles, supporting technologies, and training to North Korea. China began supplying North Korea with missile technology in the 1970s.
In 1979 or 1980, Egypt supplied Pyongyang with a small number of Soviet Scud B missiles, along with launchers and support equipment. North Korea reverse-engineered the Scud and built an industrial infrastructure to produce its own missiles, eventually at a rate of eight to 10 per month in 1987 and 1988. It sold approximately 100 to Iran, many of which were fired at Iraqi cities during the Iran-Iraq War. An extended-range version of the missile, known as the Scud C, was first test-launched in June 1990. Its 500-kilometer range was achieved mainly by reducing the payload from 1,000 to 770 kilograms. It is estimated that a total of 600-1,000 Scud B and Cs were produced by the end of 1999. Half of them were sold to foreign countries.
Driven by a desire for longer missile ranges, North Korea developed what is known in the West as the Nodong (or Rodong), which has a range of 1,350-1,500 kilometers (depending upon payload) and is capable of hitting Japan and U.S. bases in Okinawa. Nodongs were deployed in the mid-1990s, with nearly 100 fielded and another 50 or so sold to foreign countries. The missile is known as the Ghauri I in Pakistan and the Shahab 3 in Iran. North Korea wants a missile with an intercontinental range, and work is under way to achieve it. The two-stage Taepodong-1 is intended to carry a 1,000-1,500 kilogram warhead to a range of 1,500-2,500 kilometers. A three-stage space-launch version, intended to place a DPRK satellite in orbit, was launched on August 31, 1998, from the facility at Musudan-ri. The missile flew over Japan, causing much consternation. Its first and second stages separated and landed in the water, but the third stage, after traveling more than 5,500 kilometers (3,450 miles), broke up and the satellite did not reach orbit.
The longer-range Taepodong-2 may be ready for flight-testing. Depending on the payload, it may have a range greater than 6,000 kilometers, sufficient to strike parts of Hawaii and Alaska.
It is reasonable to assume that North Korea wants to put nuclear warheads on its ballistic missiles, but whether it has achieved this capability is unknown. Other countries that have developed nuclear weapons usually chose airplanes as their initial delivery method, followed in most instances by the development of ballistic missiles of various ranges. North Korea is an exception to this pattern--ballistic missiles are its preferred delivery method, and aircraft do not appear to have a role.
The long run. The North's closed society and the covert nature of its nuclear program make it a "difficult intelligence collection target," as the CIA puts it. No one knows what North Korea's nuclear intentions are--Pyongyang relies heavily on ambiguity in all that it does. Has Kim Jong Il decided that North Korea's security requires a stockpile of nuclear weapons? Or are its actions and words another instance of its strange brand of bargaining with the United States, in which North Korea offers to make concessions in exchange for diplomatic recognition, non-aggression pacts, money, or goods? It may be that, after 30 years of offensive U.S. nuclear posturing on the peninsula and being recently labeled as part of an "axis of evil," Pyongyang is simply ready to play hardball. (Other factors that probably affected North Korea's actions include the Bush administration's new National Security Strategy, which makes preemptive strikes a priority, and an apparently imminent U.S. war with Iraq.)
The Bush administration's hope that North Korea will give up its nuclear program seems fanciful at this point. What incentives could possibly be offered that would cause it to give up its weapons program, dismantle its nuclear complex, and agree to an intrusive verification regime? It is highly unlikely that North Korea will agree to abandon the very thing that gives it leverage with its neighbors and the United States.
A nuclear-armed North Korea could trigger an arms race in East Asia and beyond. It could harden the U.S. posture toward North Korea and reinvigorate the extended nuclear deterrence strategies in the region. Worse, Japan might decide to undertake a nuclear weapons program of its own, which would surely provoke a Chinese response, which in turn could cause reverberations in India and Pakistan. There could also be repercussions in Taiwan and South Korea, both of which had fledgling nuclear weapons programs of their own before U.S. pressure forced their termination.
Perhaps the larger danger: North Korea could sell its plutonium, highly enriched uranium, or finished weapons to other countries or terrorists. Its track record with ballistic missiles is not encouraging. It has made missile deals with Iran, Yemen, Syria, and Pakistan--lucrative sources of income to the impoverished country. Fissile material and nuclear weapons would be even more lucrative.
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