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To: UncleBigs who wrote (65214)	7/4/2006 2:40:39 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

As if it would matter. Does anyone really think a dem majority will dissuade congress from backing more ME war for oil? More fascist implementation at home? Laughable. BC was starving Iraqi children, at war in Bosnia and Mogadishu. Hillary would do the same and more as would any other frontrunner, especially McCain. Tom Ridge is now on the BoD of a leading RFID company as well as Irridium. The US has powered it's way to monitor nearly every bank account world wide. No where to run, no where to hide. All domestic pets and livestock are required to be chipped by 2009 or Fido's owner is a lawbreaker. What's good for Fido is better for his master. Got your new biometric Driver's License yet? What happened to the outrage over the national ID card? Wrap it, bag it, put it in the freezer. Done deal. A flick of the switch and your bank account will cease to exist. Try hiring a lawyer w/o any electro dollars. As for Russia...how amazing that they are gearing up to thwart US efforts to Cramer-ize the ME. LOL! The Fed is a sideshow like Cramer or Maria's tits. Elections are no different.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (65214)	7/4/2006 2:41:39 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Bush stole both elections and I feel that they are likely to do it again.. As I've writing more and more of how American population is sinking into Brazilification, and more are headed there, 60%, 65, 70%. By the time of elections, maybe 75%? They can't turn this economy around on rate pauses and cuts, in fact that will just sink Brazil/America faster by feeding through even more prices and even spiking long rates. Bully loves pauses and cuts cause he can leverage on it, but Bully can't win this election. I'll predict the GOP is routed, and that Brazilo-Americans may turn out a few key Democrats too, just to make their point.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (65214)	7/4/2006 3:01:47 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Comstock Partners, Inc. Perceptions and Reality June 29, 2006 Although today's FOMC statement is being widely hailed as being less hawkish than the last one, it takes a high-powered microscope to tell the difference. The committee recognized the softer economy in saying that growth is moderating as compared to the May statement where they said that growth was likely to moderate. In the previous statement they said that the run-up in the prices of energy and commodities had only a modest effect on core inflation whereas in the current release they stated that readings on core inflation have been elevated. In both cases they felt that inflation expectations remained contained. In the policy paragraph the FOMC said in May that further policy firming may be needed to address inflation risks. This time they said that moderation in growth should help limit inflation pressures over time, but that some inflation risks remain. In both statements they said the extent and timing of any future firming depended on the incoming data. In our view the Fed's message has been consistent since Bernanke became Chairman. They no longer will be committed to increasing rates at a “measured pace”, but will set future policy based on incoming data. In other words, the Fed has been telling us that for the first time in two years they do not know what they are going to do at the next meeting or any subsequent meeting. The market, however, has refused to believe this very simple statement, and has attempted instead to parse every word in every FOMC statement, testimony or speeches in order to determine what the Fed would do next. The result has been an extremely volatile market with wide daily swings, both up and down. When Bernanke first mentioned that the Fed might pause, he was merely indicating the end of the “measured increase” policy. The market took this to mean that the Fed would actually pause at the following meeting and became greatly concerned that “Helicopter” Ben was weak on inflation. To correct this misperception that a pause was certain, the new Chairman and Fed governors were forced to emphasize a deep concern about inflation in a series of speeches and interviews. In response, the market then lurched in the opposite direction and became concerned that the Fed would tighten too much and throw the economy into recession. Now with today's statement that is being interpreted as less hawkish, the market once again did a 180 degree turn. Despite the market's perceptions or misperceptions, the Fed's message has been consistent under Bernanke's chairmanship--they will react to the incoming data. The market can't know what the Fed is going to do next if the Fed itself doesn't know. The real problem is that the Fed is caught in a trap, largely of its own making. It is caught between potential inflation on the one hand and a weak economy on the other, and doesn't have much room in between. Rather than trying to parse every Fed statement and speech, investors should focus on factors that really do have some predictive value in terms of probability. These factors include 17 consecutive Fed rate hikes, an inverted yield curve, high energy prices, rising industrial commodity prices, world-wide monetary restraint, a drop in the Conference Board leading indicators, lackluster real disposable income growth and a rapid weakening in housing. All of these factors indicate a strong probability of a sharply slower economy or outright recession as well as a major bear market. After 17 straight rate hikes totaling 425 basis points, whether the Fed does or does not hike rates another 25 points will make little difference in the outcome—and for those who need reminding, stocks have usually declined substantially following the final rate increase.