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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (65279)	7/5/2006 12:48:14 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:44 trotsky (@BMGX) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this stock seems to be taking off from a bullish-looking triangle formation. BMGX is basically like RGLD in its infancy. it holds a royalty portfolio that once belonged to IAG ( which in turn is now a major shareholder of BMGX ) . what's nice about this portfolio is that it has future cash flow growth already built-in, as many of the royalties are on mines which are about to be developed. also, BMGX has sold its exploration company to concentrate on royalties, and has in the process cancelled about 10% of its share float. Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:39 trotsky (Hambone@GSS) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i note its relative strength has begun to improve when measured against other juniors. it may be too early to call it a trend, but in light of recent good news it could well become one. Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:29 trotsky (@the Rand) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved its one week bounce seems to be over, and this looks now like a successful retest of the recent break-out over resistance at 7 ( now support ) . Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:22 trotsky (WilE, 10:34) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, that's true, but the almost unanimous bearish sentiment is not the ONLY reason why i think the dollar's demise could at least be delayed for a while. one must always ask 'against what exactly is it supposed to decline?'. the major counter-component of the dollar index is the euro. now, eurozone money supply growth has been blistering compared to dollar money supply growth over the past two years. there's about a 6% gap between the respective growth rates. you also get much higher rates now for short term dollar deposits, so going from dollars to euros means incurring a negative carry. imo the longer term dollar outlook remains negative for a host of well-known reasons ( the most important one is ongoing foreign CB reserves diversification ) , but medium term the only devaluation case that i believe has some merit is a likely ongoing devaluation against gold - which should continue for all fiat currencies to varying degrees. Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:12 trotsky (Hambone, 10:28) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved absolutely. imo they already deserve higher valuations than they are accorded at present in light of the current Rand gold price, and it's a good bet that the Rand gold price will continue to outperform the USD PoG in the medium term. among the producer stocks, the SA contingent is clearly the sub sector that is the cheapest in relative terms. they're the only major producer stocks i really like here valuation-wise, although obviously less so than 2-3 weeks ago. still, i think major dips in those shares should be bought.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (65279)	7/5/2006 12:49:05 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:44 trotsky (@BMGX) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this stock seems to be taking off from a bullish-looking triangle formation. BMGX is basically like RGLD in its infancy. it holds a royalty portfolio that once belonged to IAG ( which in turn is now a major shareholder of BMGX ) . what's nice about this portfolio is that it has future cash flow growth already built-in, as many of the royalties are on mines which are about to be developed. also, BMGX has sold its exploration company to concentrate on royalties, and has in the process cancelled about 10% of its share float. Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:39 trotsky (Hambone@GSS) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i note its relative strength has begun to improve when measured against other juniors. it may be too early to call it a trend, but in light of recent good news it could well become one. Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:29 trotsky (@the Rand) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved its one week bounce seems to be over, and this looks now like a successful retest of the recent break-out over resistance at 7 ( now support ) . Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:22 trotsky (WilE, 10:34) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, that's true, but the almost unanimous bearish sentiment is not the ONLY reason why i think the dollar's demise could at least be delayed for a while. one must always ask 'against what exactly is it supposed to decline?'. the major counter-component of the dollar index is the euro. now, eurozone money supply growth has been blistering compared to dollar money supply growth over the past two years. there's about a 6% gap between the respective growth rates. you also get much higher rates now for short term dollar deposits, so going from dollars to euros means incurring a negative carry. imo the longer term dollar outlook remains negative for a host of well-known reasons ( the most important one is ongoing foreign CB reserves diversification ) , but medium term the only devaluation case that i believe has some merit is a likely ongoing devaluation against gold - which should continue for all fiat currencies to varying degrees. Date: Wed Jul 05 2006 11:12 trotsky (Hambone, 10:28) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved absolutely. imo they already deserve higher valuations than they are accorded at present in light of the current Rand gold price, and it's a good bet that the Rand gold price will continue to outperform the USD PoG in the medium term. among the producer stocks, the SA contingent is clearly the sub sector that is the cheapest in relative terms. they're the only major producer stocks i really like here valuation-wise, although obviously less so than 2-3 weeks ago. still, i think major dips in those shares should be bought.