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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim S who wrote (22991)	7/5/2006 8:21:50 PM
From: thames_sider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541347

But, that aside, I don't buy your argument that we'll be out of fossil fuels in 94 years. I'd bet on at least twice that much time, unless China and India are able to continue at their current growth rates with no other energy sources. I haven't researched these figures in detail. But I believe viable oil (that is, oil which can be extracted at less energy cost than it provides) is due to run out around 2060, coal by 2080. After that you're out there in oil-shale land. Marginal at best. And in ten years' time, with current economic growth the way it is, who's going to try telling China and India to slow down? In 30 years, who'd be able to tell them? My guess on the Chinese game plan is to try and reach rough individual parity by 2040-2050, and then see who if anyone really wants to duke it out over the remaining resources... Confucian culture is to think in the very long term. I also remain unconvinced that people produced CO2 is more than a spit in the ocean compared to naturally produced CO2. When I was at school I remember the figures in old (say, 1970) textbooks for dry atmospheric composition. CO2 was 0.28-0.30%... now it's 0.35% or so. That's adding in an new Atlantic to the oceans. I don't think a 20% rise in 30+ years, with no exceptional vulcanism or similar, can be explained in any natural way. More to the point, scientific consensus overwhelmingly backs this. And thanks for the debating recognition :) I decided to play it straight...