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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (65525)	7/7/2006 1:34:50 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

russ buy some JOE puts. Much better risk/reward than even gold/copper at this point.

To: russwinter who wrote (65525)	7/7/2006 1:39:51 PM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't think there is a crack-up boom at all unfolding. These last 2 weeks have given the initial reaction to the Fed pause. It's the playbook in action. Just wait till companies start missing earnings and the consumer gets vaporized. The crack-up boom can only get going if the real economy backs it up. A financial beta chase is just more musical chairs.

To: russwinter who wrote (65525)	7/7/2006 1:46:40 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

Hoye commented that some of his emerging market debt ETF shorts got called away....

To: russwinter who wrote (65525)	7/7/2006 6:58:55 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

From a fundamental point of view, this is a horrendous environment to be long most stocks (except the goldies; but I wouldn't buy them here, not yet.) I increased my short position today. I'm now 10% long, 20% short, and 70% in cash. The best I see for this market in 2006 is that it gyrates within the range of prices it has already traced out. Money-market funds will likely beat the indices in 2006, as well as all the permabulls and permabears. Only the best and most fortunate traders will outperform money market funds. The real risk here is that these markets take a serious dive to earth. That's my modest bet here. Inflationary and interest rate pressures may cause very serious damage. If this is a bear market, which it appears to be, these markets have a lot of room to travel on the downside. This stock market is discounting, as Leibnitz would put it, "the best of all possible worlds", or a soft landing. I not only expect earnings to disappoint, but foward looking guidance to disappoint as well. Earnings growth has peaked. Life is not fair. But it is still good. It's ALL we have. Timing is everything when you are short. The fundamentals are really deteriorating very rapidly here. Moreover, the technicals are hanging on by a thread. When it looks this bad and these markets have hardly declined, I wonder what I've missed. I expect the US Goldilox mentality to break badly very soon once traders/investors really think about the state of the US economy. And there is lots to think about this weekend.