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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (65555)	7/7/2006 9:59:01 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

It Would Not be Unfair to say Bill Gross lost his touch a while back, seeing he said the FED would stop at--was it 4.00%FF? And of course he's made a number of pronoucements in the last 24 months that simply have not come true. OK. Gross has done his pulbic mea culpas. That;s cool. But here's Gross today: ___________________________________________________________ U.S. Treasuries Gain After June Job Growth Is Below Forecast July 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries rose for a second day after a government report showed the economy created fewer jobs last month than analysts forecast, damping speculation the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates next month. Traders pared bets on the Fed raising the overnight rate between banks for an 18th straight time when it meets Aug. 8 after the Labor Department said employers added 121,000 workers in June. Treasury gains were limited as the report also showed wages accelerated at the fastest pace in five years. ``The bear market's over'' in bonds, said Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., who manages the world's biggest bond fund. ``We're becoming bullish on the market, bearish on the economy.'' ______________________________________________________________ Uh-Oh. Kind of makes you wonder. I'm adding this call from the Bond King to the universal consensus on The Street for slower growth, and lower earnings in 2H 2006. Let's throw in the consensus for a housing crash, and the peaking of inflation as well. Let's also add in what was, up until today, the consensus that there was no wage inflation pressure. And finally, let's note that the FED is already asserting the US economy is slowing. I tell ya this is starting to look like a repeat of the past 3+ years, and in particular, the period immediately following last Spring's commodity, stock market, and gold smash. Meanwhile, China's demand for oil, and petroleum products is exploding (that's not hyperbole), manufacturing is on the boil in Germany, and the mid-east is seeing a building and infrastructure boom. There's no question it's time for US stocks to go down. Long, long overdue. You won't find me getting short this market however. I'll just stay in cash, or gold, or CAD or AUD stuff. Best, Gregor PS: I would add Stephen Roach to the mix, but, it's important to be clear that every, single one of Roach's calls is hedged. He hedges in the final paragraph. Always. When he "reversed" his China crash call, he hedged. And even his Spring time bullishness on global "imbalances" (His tedious fudge word) was hedged. And he hedged publically as well.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (65555)	7/8/2006 1:49:47 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Shades, the savings rate will rise by force as the Princesses of the world run out of money and/or borrowing power. Russ tells me the princesses are sent to foreign bankers to get them to come off deposits in exchange for stinky hole. Now I already posted about some princess that had hundred million dollar real estate deals going because of her stinky spot - the one connected to that time/warner guy. Fleiss said she could start or stop nafta she had so much power. Lets follow it on through - the dirt poor sh** shoveler in india is socialized to SAVE perhaps. So is the formerly dirt poor person in the USA. The banks are BUSTING with deposits as posted here many times. Now there are lots of suze orman types who come in smelling spiffy and tell the credit card person and bank loan person GIVE ME MONEY - I promise I will repay it. Suze looks pretty and talks sweet so they get indian shovelers deposits to keep spending right? Bank officer, credit card guy makes money as long as he does loans - damned be princesses long term ability to repay it! How does loantech feed his family if he turns away all the Suze Orman princesses wanting loans? He will have to start fishing in the hot sun and cleaning his own catch - much easier to sit in bank and loan to suze and go buy fish from grocery market eh? So Suze keeps getting nice 200 dollar jeans, new cars, lavish corian countertops, trips to fiji, etc etc (I think she said she bankrupted before she became a finance guru - why did it have to go that far for her to learn to balance a checkbook?) Poor indian shovelers funds go to money heaven when aggregate princesses can't pay back loan - did japan have lots of bad loans on books - still do eh? But shoveler doesn't mind so much - he has been socialized to expect less and be poor - in fact he probably expected any chance of a wealthy lifestyle going to money heaven - he has been conditioned to learn that rich get richer and poor don't. Who is this palestinian guy demanding rights for his people - they better be thankful we let them have an olive tree while we sip starbucks and buy 1000/hr jenna jameson. Oh thats right, in gaza they are ripping up thier olive trees! From what I see princess still has many parents and grand parents retirement to suck away, thier houses to monetize and give her the money, and many sucker men, father, and grandpa to still give her dinners, gifts, cars, houses before everyone is so broke and destitute with princesses spending they say NO MORE! I meet very few fathers that are willing to say NO to princess - even fewer grandfathers. I do know a couple - definitely the minority in my peers. Does Jay and El Mat send daughter into the rain when they cry to father how sad thier life is and need money? I agree that many/most Americans will happily spend themselves into bankruptcy. There's a point at which their income can no longer service additional debts. They spent their last 2 bits puttin on the ritz. I think we're very near that point right now. I don't. When I see princesses at the shopping mall wearing old shoes and last years fashions then I will think they have had to scale back - from what I see now - living la vida loca still in full swing - maybe in detroit Princess is scaling back - but not in fla - not from my anectdotal observations. Is anyone here going to detroit malls and seeing these trends? What does princess cut back on first and what is last to go? Russ and others are amazed princess can keep shopping, that bankers keep buying up her loyd and harry promises to pay. It doesn't shock me - the stories I could tell of people throwing money away on useless princess to the point everyone here would puke with disgust - I will spare you the gore - no one deserves that. Perhaps I am wrong, perhaps you have NEVER bought princess a dinner, a movie, a gift of any kind just because she was CUTE - you are a saint UB. Perhaps you know fathers, friends, grandfathers that will not make sacrifice after sacrifice so princess can have the "american" dream. Perhaps watching my 2 sisters and nieces suck my parents for most of thier retirement has jaded me and I am biased - I will try to keep an open mind. Perhaps sending princess to real estate class and interior design school is a better use of princesses brain than sending her to biomed school with Bob Cor - who wants better longer life when we can have stylish living rooms!! hehe

To: UncleBigs who wrote (65555)	7/8/2006 1:50:34 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

No one CARED ENOUGH :( julietdavis.com Obese characters add physical weight to cannibalistic themes, both supporting and breaking with traditions of woman as destructive devourer. In the 1993 movie What's Eating Gilbert Grape? the answer is: everyone in Gilbert's family, but especially his obese mother and the guilt she instills in him about taking care of his family when she cannot. Anna Nicole Smith may at first seem like the typical "man-eater" as well-the black widow image, accused of symbolically devouring her eighty-two-year-old husband with her youthful sexuality, and then scavenging his remains. A former erotic dancer and Playboy bunny, Smith allegedly married her wealthy husband just for his money (and was sued for the inheritance she collected after his death). Each week audiences tune in to the new reality-based Anna Nicole Show to watch Anna "feed"-she shops for a new house; buys custom-designed furniture; gambles in Los Vegas; strolls through an amusement park; and orders around her personal assistant and lawyer, both of whom wait on her hand and foot, sacrificing their own most basic needs to satisfy her petty whims (e.g., Anna coerces her motion-sick assistant to ride every roller coaster with her; Anna demands that everyone participate in a food-eating contest that makes us all sick). There is no plot to this Faustian folly-just one large woman eating her way through a half-hour of our lives. So, why all the public intrigue with the show? Perhaps never before have we seen a woman so honestly and whole-heartedly confess and act out her own most visceral desires, with what is apparently the complete lack of inhibition that large amounts of cash can afford. We see her cry at her deceased husband's urn of ashes. Did she really love him? Yes, she claims: no one else ever cared about her enough to give her everything she wanted.