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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geode00 who wrote (191241)	7/8/2006 5:27:59 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I doubt we can get to 90B. The hardcore doubt we can push it over 85; we are having trouble doing that. Pretty much been a in a plateau for 15 or so months. I'm not ready to make a call yet,( Oh, hell, we won't go over 86B) but the current calculations are all about.. Darwinian on Saturday July 08, 2006 at 2:52 PM EST One more bump for Russia Freddy, I read the article at Trendlines with interest. They optimistically point out that Campbell missed his prediction because of Russia and non-conventional oil. Actually it was Russia, non-conventional oil had little to do with it. Russia was the reason that December 05, so far, has been the peak instead of May 05. And if December 05 turns out not to be the peak, it will be because of Russia. That is, will Russia bump the peak out one more time? I keep an Excel data file on all nations. The vast majority of them are in a steady decline. Only a very few are still increasing. Russia, the category which the EIA calls "Other", Angola, Brazil and China, and that is about it. The rest are either in the plateau stage or in steep decline. And Trendlines is saying, Russia, yah, yah, yah. To my way of thinking Freddy, they should be saying, "We are holding on by a shoestring called Russia." When Russia falters we are in deep do-do. To my way of thinking, the folks at Trendlines should be deeply worried. Only Russia, and perhaps "Other" is keeping Peak Oil from being blatantly obvious to the world. They, along with everyone else should be worried, very worried. I am betting that Peak Oil reached us in January. But I think we shall know in two months. In June Russia produced an average of 9,633,000 barrels per day, 263,000 barrels per day more than in April. Will that be enough to put another high bump in world oil production. I doubt it. The rest of the world is declining far too fast for Russia to prevent peak oil for much longer. [ Parent \| Reply to This ] Darwinian on Saturday July 08, 2006 at 2:56 PM EST I wrote: I am betting that Peak Oil reached us in January. Actually I meant to say that I think December 2005 was the peak, not January. Sorry for the oversight. theoildrum.com