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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (4409)	7/10/2006 7:46:56 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24225

The change in mix from sweet to a greater percentage of sour is potentially part of the reason that Saudi production has dropped, since selling some of the sour to China has not been the success that was hoped. Since the Chinese have found problems with refining the crude, they have cut back orders. China will extend a 50,000 barrel per day (bpd) cut in Saudi crude oil imports into July and August after some refiners struggled to cope with new higher-sulphur supplies, industry officials said. China contracted to buy 500,000 bpd of Saudi crude in 2006, but cut that back by 10 percent in the second quarter after refiners ill-equipped to handle the kingdom's mainly heavy-sour oil were forced to slow production after running the grades, the officials said. There is another change in that a new exploratory well is being drilled in the Empty Quarter. After being extensively surveyed Shell, Total and Aramco are jointly drilling the well. SRAK began exploring the contract areas in January 2004. The Company has completed the largest high-resolution airborne gravity survey in the world and continues to conduct extensive seismic acquisition. A second drilling rig is planned to be mobilized to the area in 2007, the statement said. The well, Isharat-1, in southwestern Saudi Arabia is considered a rank wildcat because of the very significant distances from any previous exploration wells drilled within the kingdom, and its testing of new hydrocarbon plays. The well is anticipated to take up to four months to drill. The time that it will take is interesting, since it is one more data point to plug into the production estimates for Saudi operations. The fact that Aramco are bringing in partners is perhaps also indicative of the fact that, as the world is moving to the production of more and more expensive-to-extract oil, investment costs are going to be an increasing factor. Given the likely cost increases for production of the tar sands , the increased costs for deep water production, and this not to mention the costs for new production in Russia, I can't help but think that there is only so much investment capital to go around in this business. It may (grin) prove practical to get oil from shale, but, as with other things it is going to be expensive. And one wonders at the inertia of the financial side of things, if, for example, we know that there is a possible source out there, can all the capital be assembled to move all the needed projects forward. This has been a theme of a number of folk who have surveyed the business, from the point of view that - "given the investment of $x trillion - we can find all the oil we will ever need." While I was never much enamored of that statement, seeing it as not much more than a fall-back excuse - it does begin to concern me that the curve may tip faster because investment capital for E & P has rather gone to buying other firms, as Gazprom has diligently demonstrated over this past year. Although I do note that they are now putting some money into exploring in Gujarat. But even they, apparently, are seeing the impact of higher costs. Although, as they continue to build their monopoly, their customers may soon find the bite to bring their profits back. theoildrum.com