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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (65723)	7/10/2006 10:28:32 AM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I wouldn't conclude the commercials are bearish on bonds from the cot. 5 yr. Bond, net long 74k contracts 10 yr, net short 11k 30 yr, net long 165k That's a big bet on the 30 yr T Bond from the long side for a contract that twice as volatile as the 10 yr. To me, the commercials are bullish u.s. treasury bonds overall.

To: russwinter who wrote (65723)	7/10/2006 11:23:29 AM
From: bond_bubble	Respond to of 110194

Inflation expectation rising (in future labor contracts): nytimes.com Hotel Revenue Climbs, but So Do Expenses Under the new pact, which does not include two of Manhattan's largest hotels, the Waldorf-Astoria and the New York Hilton — which are still negotiating with about 3,000 employees — hotel workers receive a 4 percent pay increase each year of the first three years of the six-year contract, effective July 1, and 3.5 percent a year thereafter. The hotels also agreed to raise pension fund contributions by 2 percent of payroll, to add a sick day and to maintain a 3 percent increase in payments into a health care plan that was negotiated by hotel workers earlier this year. In addition, employees with 20 or more years will receive an extra week of vacation. Nolan E. Hecht, director of the hospitality group at Cushman & Wakefield, a commercial real estate firm, said: "Most people think that revenue growth over the next two or three years is going to far outpace growth in expenses or costs. The question is, when the market pulls back in a few years, will you be stuck with all these fixed expenses?" "To put it in perspective," Mr. Dandapani said, "you can arguably get a better return by putting your money in a C.D. for a year than investing in a hotel based on present pricing."