Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (31367)	7/10/2006 11:17:43 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

>Funny that rising sales during a period with lower inflation and lower rates than now did nothing for AMAT.< That's not fair. AMAT rose 150% from the bottom of the last cycle. Sure AMAT rose mostly in anticipation of higher earnings rather than due to actual earnings. But technology stocks outperform in the early stages of an economic cycle. Just because we got a huge run in the 90's does not mean it will ever be that easy to make money again. Profits have got to be taken with all stocks. But it is especially important with stocks that are treated as cyclical investments. Why did ML upgrade defensive stocks and downgrade technology? My guess is that they now want to drive technology stocks even lower as they find a way for their institutional investors cash in profits in consumer related stocks. If you think institutional investors will avoid these stocks forever then you are wrong. They will buy as cheap as they can and later sell into upgrades and rosy forecasts while the retail investor generally is doing the exact opposite. RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (31367)	7/10/2006 11:54:07 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95587

All these catalysts are in place - five years of steady growth. The data shows it clearly but the market is still boxed into the "highly cyclical" mind set and if necessary analyst will make their own cycle. So everybody is waiting for Gaudot to show up and time that true bottom perfectly where everybody is dumping semis like there is no tomorrow and than make a killing. The return greatly depends how far in the ground you can drive these stocks but guess what equipment makers figured out to stay profitable during slow downs (a big difference compared to the past). This looks quite different compared to several months ago; it's not a catalyst but not an obstacle either: finance.yahoo.com BTW: I reposted that Herb Greenberg post from two years ago - 2 years ago he said due to option expensing AMAT's midcycle earnings would be 25 cents on an annual base - it turned out AMAT made 14 cents in two of the weak 2005 quarters - that's 56 cents. I think a number of big and large investors erased chip stocks from their landscape no matter what and they don't intend to reconsider. But on the other hand I don't recall having so many research and financial pundits following the sector. Just compare it the coverage the sector received 10 years ago