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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (53240)	7/11/2006 1:52:14 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I think some people are scared of the American public when the debt bubble falls apart. During the 1930s economic depression, bankers and other wealthy right-wing individuals proposed that retired General Smedley Darlington Butler lead a coup d'etat to seize control of the government from FDR. They didn't like all of his socialist programs. Another coup attempt involved General Douglas MacArthur. Both Generals reported the coup plots and refused to participate. Yet no one was ever prosecuted. Meanwhile people on the left campaigned for a workers economy where all large businesses were nationalized. I don't think any of these new "spy on Americans" programs are motivated by terrorism. I think they're being put in place to keep Americans acting "normally". You know what normal is - doing what they're told without asking a lot of questions. There's a lot of new programs to monitor American citizens like myself who deposit money in other currencies in foreign banks. When the British Pound collapsed after WW-II, this added to the business rot as many wealthy British citizens sent their Pounds to overseas banks into other, more stable, currencies. If the US government decided to impose currency controls, it would be helpful to have these monitoring programs already in place. .

To: NOW who wrote (53240)	7/11/2006 2:52:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Market Conditions for San Diego, California Second Quarter 2006: San Diego Housing Market - single family detached and attached homes: June home sales were 2,947, down 33% from June 2005. The second quarter sales were 8,822 homes sold down 30% from the second quarter last year. As a matter of fact our second quarter sales were slightly below the fourth quarter of 2005. Who would have thought that the peak April, May and June months would have lower sales than the winter/holiday months of October, November and December. That provides a very good picture of what has happened to the demand for housing. The inventory on July 1 stood at 22,049, up from 20,635 a month earlier. For the past few months we have been adding inventory at a rate of about 1,500 homes per month. The growth has been caused by the decline in demand having homes stay on the market longer, causing new listings to stack on top of the unsold listings. One of the major issues for our market is what does the future demand look like, and only time will tell. I did a rough check on July to date (July 9) to see where it stands, I debated about putting this in this writing because the numbers are scary and they will close somewhat by the end of the month. I decided to put it in so that we can see the mountain ahead to maintain some level of reasonable demand. The first 9 days of July have 303 homes sold for an average price of $559,577 and an average size of 1781 sq ft; the first 9 days of July 2005 had sales of 933 and an average price of $629,168 and an average size of 1749 sq ft. Last July's 933 sales represented 25% of the month's sales, if that were to hold this year, well suffice it to say that would be a disaster. I think this July will stay in the 30% to 35% down from last year region and that would put July sales at about 2,700 homes sold, keeping us a path to about 30,000 home sold for the year, down about 30% from last year. Junes' average price was $638,380 up 3% from last year. However, this increase is explained by the fact that the over $1 million sales represent 10% of June total sales where they were only 8.5% of last Junes' sales. When you break down the sales into price & sq ft segments you see a completely price flat market. However, there are neighborhoods already showing price declines of the 4% to 5% region and I expect to see this show up in the overall county statistics. Markets can not sustain 30% declines in demand over a period of time and not have price erosion. Here is a trend to consider; sales in the fourth quarter of 2005 was down 10% from prior year, sales of the first quarter 2006 was down 20% from prior year and the second quarter of 2006 was down 30% from last year third quarter of 2006 ???, anybody's guess. Another issue that will impact price pressures is that about 30% of our listings are vacant and heaven help the Fed continue to raise interest rates. Help comes in the form of something that will increase demand or reduce inventory. realtytimes.com

To: NOW who wrote (53240)	7/11/2006 2:59:20 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said he wants the central bank to support economic growth with its zero-interest-rate policy. It's ``desirable' for the Bank of Japan to maintain the policy as there is no concern about inflation in the economy, Tanigaki said today at a news conference in Tokyo. The central bank should pay attention to moves of long-term interest rates when it makes its policy decision, he said. The Bank of Japan's policy makers will discuss whether to raise rates at a two-day board meeting ending July 14. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi last week toned down his opposition to a rate increase, saying the bank should make its own decision. bloomberg.com